[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

It was certainly along one..

 

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Remember the charts are trying to show a pattern change, which as always takes a good week to be clear on any overall predominant signal. One thing is for sure the UK is trending colder, an interesting week coming up model watching, we have to start somewhere ! 

 

Happy New Year to all, and here's to 2014 

[Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period]

Yes and pretty potent, very heavy rain here for an hour and winds gusting 48mph. But looking a little more potent now as its moving East.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Yes Gav, with temps slowly falling away we could see any rain or showers turn wintry even to lower levels bar the far South after the 7th, I think that is the tipping point as SM and a few others have constantly punted with various background signals.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

Very dark here, even my outside floodlight with a light censor flicked on a moment back. Heavy rain has eased to Light/mod rain now,

 

Temp 4.4c

Dp 3.2c

Wind Chill 0.2c

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

I must say GFS is looking much more Wintry towards the end of run with cold -7/8 850s over much of the North and certainly cold enough for widespread snowfall with incoming Atlantic Systems being pulled in on much colder PM airflow. Then eventually a slack Northerly, way out but something of wintry interest.

 

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

THATS IT, i am writing off 2013 !!!

 

I think it's pretty safe to now as far as widespread cold and snowfall are concerned, Roll on 2014 !  Another 2 Months of winter left yet to get through 

 

[Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>]

Hope everyone in the Scotland and the far far North have a good safe New Yr Eve,  Here's to 2014 

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Parts of Ireland and N/W England could see some snow showers falling on the 4th as some cooler -5 850s run through.

 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

As soon as it's turned light, it's turned very dark.. with moderate rain and blustery winds gusting 28mph South.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

Morning all, Yes TX1, but a SSW does not always mean the disruption to the Vortex will bring cold weather to the UK as we have seen in the past.

 

A wet New Years Eve coming up, Glad im stopping in where it's dry with the odd tipple (or 10..)   Temp currently 6.1c

 

[Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period]

Some very strong winds over Ireland on the 3nd, then Northern England. Severe around S/W coast Ire/and Irish Sea

 

 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

A very wet morning here with 4.8mm of rain and gusting up to 57mph just a normal day really.... Sky's have nearly cleared now. Temp 4.6c,  West 11mph

[2013 - overview, thoughts opinions]

March will never be forgotten round here, the snow depths really were something, drifts up to the bedroom window sills.

 

Wouldn't mind another.

 

Overall it's been a very interesting year for weather, had a bit of everything to keep me interested, it's been a long time since we have had storms as of late.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

My main point is that, at the moment, I cannot see any indications from the NWP that there is likely to be any proper cold weather for the bulk of the UK in the foreseeable future.

 

My point was you have exhausted your point.

 

And belittled BA.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I can not read the tex in the video, it seems very blurred to my eye's. Maybe im not disappointed after Dancers post 

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Hi BA, surely the stratt will be having some effect on the models at this point out in FI ? As the predicted warming signals are picked up on due to the flip flopping over the last few runs..? Sorry for the confusion.

 

FI the Polar Vortex looks very distorted..

 

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

I love BA's incredible optimism about us heading into a cold phase!.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BA is one of the most knowledgeable on here, he is describing/looking for the small changes in the Northern Hemisphere due to the predicted stratt warming. Very interesting to see these changes take place, and someone you may learn a thing or to off !

[Solar and Aurora Activity Chat]

Sunspot 1936 has blasted a moderate M3.1 solar flare. The active region is Earth facing..

 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

I agree S 95, We do very well here for snow during PM attacks, one of the most interesting flows over the British Isles, what with the air being so unstable you can expect anything... But warmth.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/9/5/No._10_-_Air_Masses_and_Weather_Fronts.pdf

 

This air mass has its origins over northern Canada and Greenland and reaches the British 

Isles on a north-westerly air stream. 

 

Polar maritime is the most common air mass to affect the British Isles. It is normally the air 

mass found behind a cold front what has come in off the Atlantic Ocean. 

 

This air mass starts very cold and dry but during its long passage over the relatively warm 

waters of the North Atlantic its temperature rises rapidly and it becomes unstable to a great 

depth. 

 

No frost last night here as cloud rolled in late evening.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/12/2013----->]

It's been a chilly day here with a high of 4.5c but mostly clear skys, temp now 1.8c so another ground frost tonight unless things rapidly change. Some frost has remained all day from last night in places.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Something BFTP mentioned this morning.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Increasingly average for the time of year I would say frosty, unfortunately and no real sign of an evolution to a substantial cold spell, still I expect we will see other ideas over the coming days. I guess for some members any kind of change to cooler conditions is welcomed but I can’t say a change from mild and wet to average and wet floats my boat, freezing cold rain when you work outside as I do is the pits. 

 

But the trend is increasingly colder as we progress through Jan as per METO and charts to possibly below average. Next week i agree average sometimes cooler temps, we need to get that out the way first... All part of the cooling trend for the cold to hopefully arrive, I work outside myself so completely understand !

 

I see OON's around to bring some order/humour...