SMU

Morning Just topping off the morning runs which have been excellent I posted the GEFS table the other day showing the layers of cold If you note the 4th of Jan just a couple of -8s with the piste being -5/-6c Now today a couple of -10s & -9s with the piste being close on -8c Thats a crucial upgrade for England & could be the crucial difference between convective rain / sleet or snow... For me we need to come in under -7.5c ....

Back on the upgrades again Perfect flow out at 96

Interesting temp profiles today > daytime low 2s then rising to peak at 1030 3.8c Now skies clearing 3.4c on the way down..

Not really but as per continued assessment > if its a volatile unexpected operational with features that just wont happen then its a scrapper If it fits in generally with UKMO then its worth a look---

18z always a shambles.

Yesss Remember X marks the spot for the cutter !

Nope but falling snow to break the duck !!

Lets see how the SE wiggles out of this one... 18z Harmonie keeps the faith

Yes GFS moved to UKMO Nb my chart earlier where the 0c isotherm cant suddenly go round a bend

Bit of boomage there -8c isotherm moved through & snow showers packing in from the NE...

108 on the GFS sees the best angle & cold pool modelled to the East so far

Dont look at GEFS PTB 28. Its PPN on a ratio 1:10 gives us 70cm snow from the Weds slider

updated UKMET 36/42 & 60 showing the same as GEM GEFs panel 36 looks good.

@Met4Cast Hirlam out. My go to model since 2010. Dont cancel just yet.... The channel track looks fine but the little flick NE up into Kent is what brings the snow... GFS op & Mean on board

Yes Also highlighting the GFS flaws The implosion from the south wont happen this run due to additional strength moving SW in the jet & the southern arm over europe less attenuated 12z first

UKMO 144 V the red X forecast

^ ?? I remember a lot of non ukmo fans saying day 6 never lands look at todays T24 V T144 from 24th

12z High res not run yet. Wait for Hirlam. This was the UKMET 00z 48

Temp tracker now 3pm. Down to 2.5c. Hoping to break into the negatives tonight !!

Wintry hazard

If everything was net net the same synoptic pattern as say Feb 2006 & it was next week Could the low solar input be compensated by the anomalous warmth of the SSTs... at 12c ( Would have been about 6c in Feb ) S

Good afternoon South Easterners- Today has felt like the first day of a proper cold spell, its 2.8c here but the air has a proper bite when you walk outside. Slate grey skies, 0c dewpoint is what a winters day should be all about .... Garden looking a bit rough- needs an hour TLC

Good Afternoon - The GFS was never known as a 'high top' model - Its strat resolution was not in the same league as say Gloesea etc, this means even after upgrades at best its resolution through all the layers is course- With that come lack of clarity & distorted blobs of energy. > If we examine the past week or so where we morph into a QTR type unusual position models like the GFS / NAVGEM / ICON all become eratic, performance drops & accuracy deteriorates quickly after say 120 - those random blobs of energy suddenly become super mild outcomes or super snowstorms ( hence the comment on the 12z GFS yesterday being fit for the scrapper ) If we then load on the usual GFS weakness around split energy in terms of distribution of flows then we quickly remind ourselves of the reasons why it becomes very erratic. Case in point GFS 00z 27/12 for the 4th of Jan V todays 4th of Jan. A clear loss of functionality.... With that in mind we should stick with the model of least volatility > Which always brings me round me to the UKMO. Its consistency is metronomic barring the odd 'slight' deviation like yesterdays 12z If you are a follower of the GEFS ENS then as it stands todays we will get pretty much every scenario thrown at us - Thats because to balance the continual weakness in phasing out blocking we have a signal thats the exact opposite. This will then manifest in the GEFS ENS at around 192 finding as many possible solitions as possible to remove the block & to move the atlantic East en mass, but there will still be some that despite the bias hang onto the blocking signal long enough to load up those extreme FI runs. Taking then the UKMO at 144 today which is better than the ECM we see a strengthening of the block with a clear line of site in terms lf regrogression to Greenland & a cutting low to swing SSW through Scandi. The most positive news also today ( again from UKMO ) less so the ECM is the toning down of the signal which filtered mediterranean air into the flow. The UKMO makes the angle of flow a lot more acute than the ECM ( which is a gentle bend ) - with such an acute turn the mild airmass cant move North then suddenly take a left turn - so as the cold air & the overall pattern sinks back south so does the mild air In a nutshell where should be looking next 24 - 48 hours ?? Well around 144 we want to see where that low is going to cut > its the most important trigger to the success of bringing deep cold south, my forecast would be the RED X & the yes track. Not the NO GFS track. Also the atlantic low > Blue track watch for revisions south on this track set to enforce the easterly... Fingers crosses here for tomorrows snow. S

Morning guys / girls > Great to see some snowfall for the snow starved !! Send it this way

GFS 48 > 54