SMU

ECM / Harmonie. is where my money always goes which was the Hirlam model. Ignore Euro 4 & aperge.

These are behind a paywall not one for Maidstone London city

This is the EPS mean.PPN 72 accum over that 24 hour period.

Just off the press ECM Biggin Hill 10 day. 14cm Snow.

WIB. That chance is all but 0%. Its a retrograde block supported by the attenuation in the jet. It can only go north... thats because tbe jets cutting underneath. It cant sink.

Lets see what T24 looks like...! No doubt it will be in the channel or worse still edged 50 miles north & it rains here for 36 hours.

Ghandis flip flop has more moisture...

Temps on the drop here > quick loss down to 1.8c now.

ECM 96 wrap around

EC 96 - Low still stuck in the SE in -5c air

ECM 72 > must be a snow event for the south >>>> SE there in -5c air!! Similar to GEM

Upgrade to sub boom status for PTB 29...

UKMO would be more oval high so an Easterly for England with that cutter low somewhere up by scandi...

I checked the GEFS panel there was a few with high content like that! maybe its a bit steep though - GEFS mean - Lovely with the mean dropping circa -7c now. The key here is the cut SW of any low that comes through Scandi - The GFS is to tight ( ie to far west ) thats because it wraps the jet up quickly very circular, where as its likely to be more oval shaped meaning the cut point is further East. This would be my locale- PTB 29 perfect cut point... Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles... S

Yes but the core will be well East of that & curvature of the isolines SSW through Scandi...

GFS into the scrapper. Its to vertical with the pressure build. Its not going to happen like that.

Significant upgrade to the uppers & cold on GFS @72 as we allign to a more direct Northerly flow ! Also the amplitude of the wave at 90 on the jet reaches a higher peak over Greenland All great news to start with...

Not expected now. NAO will be East based.

Also of key note today in the modelling is the loss of the projected ESE flow to be replaced by ENE...

Morning Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it... However they are coming.... Soon...

1.2c Here. Dewpoints are good here... -1c across the region.

Yes not quite yet..... Plenty of wiggle room from tonights run. I will give it 8/10. Need more ENE > ESE....

Temps here 2.1c & dropping fast.... Maybe some flurries laster from the west!

Now then .... Be prepared for some awsome ENS over the next few days. If Screaming Easterlies are your thing... Vertical ridging in the atlantic - ( loop ) which screams southwards through Scandi > classic classic easterly

Cold Northerly out to 144