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SMU

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Everything posted by SMU

  1. SMU
    Decent mean now 186 - Cant be sniffed out to be fair Very Very rare a mean at 186 is -6c at 186 & -8c for Scotland... Irrespective of whether we get a day or so of less condusive uppers the whole evolution is very very special....
  2. SMU
    Yes UKMO still all kinky at 72
  3. SMU
    A bit of Ice on Keston ponds already!
  4. SMU
    yes. I work in West Wickham now Just trotting off from a shift > still -1 in the high street
  5. SMU
    Got -4 on the car jail lane. 1130
  6. SMU
    @TSNWK Just drove through jail lane for work
  7. SMU
    Split vortex late on Undepinning the potential for blocking 4-5 weeks
  8. SMU
    All within a west based NAO as well there...
  9. SMU
    Not always .... Im comparing the evolution with UKMO The good news here is the PV is broken & the jet will be non existent so that greenland high is looking very likely...
  10. SMU
    Amazingly wrong. The cut point is going to be to far west.... Anyway ignoring the inter run detail of the 120-144 timeline the 18z GFS delivers some widespread snowfalls courtesy of some deep cold polar air pushing south lets have some of that!!
  11. SMU
    Yes classic top of hill V frost hollows at bottom. I did a round trip to my mums an hour ago. Longfield at 20M -1c on car Got to Eltham 0c. A20 dropped to -1c again just at Farningham roundabout > then increased to 0c at brands hatch & +1c at the radio mast 230M ! Classic upsloping of warmer air out of the valley.
  12. SMU
    Hurrah back in the sub zero club!
  13. SMU
    Everyone loves a bit of Eastern kink Sadly that costs money...
  14. SMU
    Good to see the ECM top end of the pack
  15. SMU
    Hi bud thats slightly incorrect The kink prevents the mixing UKMO V ECM
  16. SMU
    Yep I set my benchmark @-7.5 earlier. UKMO safe. ECM not safe. UKMO needs to be right !!
  17. SMU
    ECM annoyingly poor again - In reality we are talking fractions & fractional differences between the UKMO however these macro nuances make the difference of -5/-6 on the ECM & -7/-8 on UKMO as highlighted 2 days ago we need a kink to the East not a bend. UKMO kink ECM bend. pic from other day still stands re Kink
  18. SMU
    Not bad drop for under 1 hour
  19. SMU
    I imagine thats -7c air. Will need some heavy pockets of PPN. Good at 100M superb at 200M - White downs especially on the tops.
  20. SMU
    UKMO 96- Looks a twinge colder than this Morning...
  21. SMU
    I guess we will see if theres any kick north
  22. SMU
    Temps tumbling away now 4.3c max, now 3.1c
  23. SMU
    How far North did the PPN swing back
  24. SMU
    & remember how to measure......
  25. SMU
    Good Morning Still keeping 1 eye on the PPN Anyway I think the confidence of heavy showers moving in from the East is high now from the 4th Here are the 850s & Freezing levels. Best case scenario is about -9c & 100M which in the current climate & how things have been is great. Worst case is probably -6c & 300M so still a day or 2 to firm up but getting interesting
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