SMU

ECM 1-2c warmer than UKM, but has come from forecasting -5c so room to manoeuvre towards Uk model...

yes - more like sheared energy moving south as opposed to a big low pressure.

I forecast a reduction in strength of the northerlt plunge & associated low & increase in force form the East under the nose of high pressure over Scandi....

Late 1.3c Please

edited

Not yet... waiting for the right moment..

Well I would give it 7 only because the low advances to far west for widespread lowland snow over England > need a bit more restricted track like UKMO Now ive seen UKMO uppers im more happy with its solution...

GFS ever so slowly over 24 hours has crept to the UKMO kink, as a result the milder pulse has receded Also as a result of the northward movement of the kink in Europe ( East ) the angle of CAA over the UK has been moving the coldest uppers south. If we look at 12z V 06z it's noticable But now compare just 24 hours ago l Those small increments result in a 3-4 degree drop in the SE... We also see this pool more widespread for monday eve > With such an expanse of -8c & the map set at 2 degree increments the likleyhood is there -9c in the middle! As we progress 108 is much colder as well ! UKMO is great much better than 00z but 144 is 9/10 not 10/10 as we need the atlantic high with no positive tilt at all... Thanks

Yes ICON ( otherwise known as I 'con' ) is quite a bit colder through the core times 80-120 from Europe all now to a weaker med finger Kink wins the day

Light snow here still.

Snow flurry new ash green temp 1.1c

Just in Crayford leaving Going via A20 for a swing up past west kingsdown !

you must have caught that bromley shower

Its ok yes as low as the low stays well to the south in Europe...

Morning Looking at the 24 hour trends the chances of that northerly rapidly diminishing to be replaced from the ever deepening cold in the East...

Yes if its edging to the Ukmo over a series of runs... Bank

GFS upgrades the eastern cold pool T48 Also weakens the mediterranean 'finger'

you dont need me anymore

ICON rolling & the macro analysis shows more of a kink to the flow in Europe - like the UKMO Also lower heights over UK.... 18z first-

So ECM as I tried to explain earlier replicates a classic worse case scenario for a WNAO lets scrap that!

Hi buddy what we saying 1c is worth in uppers then - 150-200M - thats what I gave it. GFS had a surface freezing level of 100-150M in -8c air the other day ( forecast ) & 575M ish in -5.5 Air

144 > 120 upper air trending from day 5 to 4 Down to -9c now > much better...

ECM 24 hour change from 96 >72 trends towards the UKMO kink rather than the bend. New charts first

yes with the UK sitting ( just ) on the cold side of the trough ..

West based NAO Summary * Is usually poor for the UK because the cold air usually filters SSW west of Iceland towards the azores & this is where the low pressure settles - as a result this encourages high pressure over France & warm SW Winds over England... This situation usually manifiests it 'worse' when we go straight to a WNAO from the standard westerly pattern > its a worse case scenario. * WNAO from a strong ENAO is fine. This is because before the high transitions west from the core over Greenland it will nearly always leave residual LOW heights to our South & crucially east > as well as a node of high pressure over Scandi- As a result of this the normal low swinging south out of iceland will be butting into continental cold from the East so the WNAO is negated. - It can be a snow maker. Par example from the GEFS The only time the SE can get snow from a sliding south as cold air is ahead of the front... It ls worth highlighting again that in 50 - 60 years of archive reviewing the 'classic' <0c CET months have multiple repetitive cycles like this within 4 weeks to keep the UK cold. To get a shot like 1963 you need about 10 cycles over 8-10 weeks. We are at number 1.