SMU

Read Gael force post

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east

That’s not the met office

Maybe it will evolve into snow zonality...

Look at the 120 Bracknell fax..

A good post based on reasoning of which You couldn’t argue based on the information that you present. There is however the small matter of ‘human intervention & forecasting’ involved here as well as experience. That’s the difference between someone who chooses to solely rely on what a model says V someone who blends what’s a model says with ‘experience’ of said models & when they perform poorly, so whilst the data you have forms your opionion - all it does is reinforce mine which is model output + blend of experience. So let’s be clear from Day 1 I think both me ( & TEITS - when he joined the party ) have forecast a ‘decent’ continental Easterly to reach the UK -circa -6 850 or below - The timeline which as with most cold spells has slightly elongated due to model progression ( haven’t got time to explain now ) is still due Thurs / Fri. Let’s not forget all the ‘teleconnection’ crew decided it wasn’t going to happen - based on reduced angular momentum etc leaving just one or 2 going against the whole model suite. we now find just 2 days later the same model suites following just 1 model - The UKMO- which has forecast pretty much the scenario suggested from day 1 just spread over 1/2 more days. People seem to forget how bad the GFS & ECM have been in the last 2 days - here a typical incidence ECM last 3 00z 168>144 & today’s 120 Its Crystal clear the model has moved to the forecast scenario - Now examine the Debilt ENs same vein - No cold - some cold then hang in a minute - lots of cold. No point in posting the GFS as it’s still a day behind. So great argument - but your data is flawed & changing in favour of cold. My current thoughts hold Easterly / Southeasterly in situ at day 6-7 with a high potential of undercut not currently shown in the models. Best s PS ***everyone*** ask yourself 1 question * Why the Met office with every MOGREPs / ECM run / ENS suite available decide not to modify the T84 Fax chart away from the UKMO 12z raw data- answer: because they have confidence it will be correct—

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread - So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Better than the operational !

Yes UKMO 144

Well ECM pushes through a little bit we all now how progressive it’s been in the last 48 hours to prove that I have the last 3 Debilt ENS saves T2M - look for a significant drop today @9am!! UKMO top of the charts today - still- eagerly awaiting the 168 FWIW. edit UKMOWOW also has shortwave energy dropping SE @144...

At 168 anything that falls in England will be snow.

0.9c here odd flake in the wind.

ECM 120 just updated lovely circular Scandi High & deep cold heading west - another huge step to the UKMO

Just waiting for the UKMO 850s @144 but it is the best run it’s ever churned out- Of course with the GEM & GFS still pony tony it’s worrying that at 96 they are totally different— The forecast is still bang on the UKMO ...

Longest streamer in history !

It still fails exactly the same when it comes to energy seperation- as being born out now at 96/120.

Here’s a classic example of GFS fail 2009- GFS 18z T132 & here’s the T12 chart 5 days later GFS has NO CLUE what to do with the energy anywhere in NW Europe.

Also note 126 winds westerly in the UK 12z 120 winds Easterly in the UK 18z

GFS now on the right tracks many times we have talked about the GFs inability to decipher &Split different strands of energy in the Atlantic & because of this it just moves the whole lot east ‘en block’ as a result it misses key events & today is one of them the separate areas of energy at 96-120 in UKMO that has been there for 24-36 hours has only just been picked up by the 18z op these 2 watch them get further apart in future runs... the 1005 low will go further North allowing the Scandi ridge further west the 1010 low will be further south

Early doors IKON 18z moves along nicely to the Euros @120 notice more deeper cold piling SW out of Russia- we are now just at the tip of stability for an easterly flow @day 5 *** Normally the GFS isn’t how far behind *** so expect to see more changes - more Easterly isolines across Europe & the 850s begin to drop- sub -6c uppers to magically appear...

& there you go. welcome back ECM. a total flip ( as forecast ) to the UKMO run.

There has NEVER been any 1 time with an UKMO Easterly at 120 ( jan 13 / Feb 9 ) where it’s then backtracked to follow a non agreeing GFS. ever.

Afternoon Everyone - As the day evolves today with the UKMO 144/168 being epic - there could be a decent meeting point that UKMO 168-192 seeing’s Atlantic moving SE a la GFS & engaging the cold air ahead of it - that way we have fronts with cold air ahead & behind - a sure fire recipe for snow.... S

^^ now compare ECM 168 last night 00z to today’s ECM 144 00z !!

Yes huge backtrack to 144- not quite There though- Eagle Can you slot Aperge in there @2/3 rd thanks