SMU

Notice the first signs of blue now across the Easterly & lower 850s... minus 6- ..... S

Anyone got UKMO 168 before the 18z

This weekends easterly is pretty much identical to the models forecast from day 1

@fat chad & Everyone I am still basing my forecast on the below image with 2 caveats for expected change - 1) heights & cold pool ... > If you draw a big circle around Central Europe on that meteociel chart the height are 544-548 ( green ) with a cold pool around 0c to -4c ** History indicates that the GFS over estimates these heights by 4-8 dam sometimes even 12 dam which is another reason why it looked so tame V the euros- assumjng The Easterly lands as predicted above then expect that Green to change to the first colour of blue with even a central pool of lower heights into the next layer of blue - so a forecast to drop from 544-548 to 536-540 ( core pool 532 dam) This will also signify a reduction of upper temps along a similar gradient so instead of 0 to -4c you get -2 to -8c * Secondly the glow allignment is SEasterly - this can also be a GFS bias of the strength of the southern arm not being identified to sub T120 below is the T156 Jet chart from 06z look as we get nearer 120 & below for more of an Arc / n shape across Italy - more amplification- this will enhance the easterly allignment- if you look at T54 that’s why the Easterly is getting sharper now because of the upwards flow so these would Be my pointers to everyone looking in on the models looking for a more classical Easterly @168.. The forecast for this period (144-192) is my representation research & acknowledgment of bias - no one else’s. thanks S

Yes the colder air is not that relevant but the flow & alligment is important -

Yes the colder air is not that relevant but the flow & alligment is important -

No sorry should have been clear the runs from 2 days ago ^^ that look like my image ECM Was discounted today just like about a week ago when it was deemed to be an outlier S

Will do you one in my break later PTB 2 similar @72– weather toad that’s to early in the run timeframe ~156

Morning. The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow. This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.

Wish an Easterly.. - Im gonna come back at 7pm tomorrow. all have a good 24 hours.

120 The key is that vertical WAA up towards the pole... NB : no ones mentioned the Pacific high creeping over the pole in the last few runs...

NAVGEM 12z ( again ) carbon copy of UKMO old fashioned Easterly 168-180

It’s like a mini inversion where the upper air is warmer than the surface flow - Its snowed before in upper air of +4/+6 but surface temps -3c where the cloud deck is below the inversion- GFS won????? should have gone to specsavers All these are 12z GFS ensembles @168 which suddenly look like the same ECM that everyone wrote off from 2 days ago ECM 216 2 days ago. here are 10 of the 12z suite.... yet somehow the GFS hasn’t changed .......

You would like to think so- problem is GFS is on the back foot catch up!

Best run of the day from UKMO - transitioning well that high-

Not really. totally disagree with some of the comments in here. Compare 6hr V last 6 hour - look ( or expect ) trends if you know where to look & review those changes ( If you have time ) especially with mean Charts V same timestamps this is especially good if you have the facility to compare 3/4 runs in allignment.... It then avoids the curious posts and to why did a model change so much- well if you had been watching you would already know....

& were off ( IKON ) 1-2 runs of sharpening should see some of the pessimists withdraw their negativity...

9 years ago GFS 168 V actual 7 days later

Right last post ENS coming on board - no GH but poss Scandi / Icelandic high ( the best ) Raise those expectations for the 12s UKMO 144 12z in proper range of evolution today PS the PV diving SE off the states @168 is good not bad-

It’s the evolution ... post this..

NAVGEM06z is a carbon copy of UKMO 00z if you wanted to know what 168 was like http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

I will try & do a post @130-2 to show the watch points of the 12z but the GFS mean is now sharpening up (84 v 90) so expect more & more ENS working to the euro 06z on the left so round the clock then * Icelandic WAA is further west ( note dark blue over Iceland on 00z - light blue 06z = further west * Scandi trough is sharper -00z not closed & entry through northern parts , 06z entry through north west scandi *Spanish low - further East with lower heights. * Azores shortwave - more pronounced on 06z mean These 4 areas of activity are likely to sharpen again on 12z so * Icelandic advection further west * Scandi trough further west * Italian low NE * Azores low more pronounced & south west These events are at T90 - the sharpening will have bigger repercussions on the pattern at 168 all working in favour of a more pronounced Easterly flow.. Because the 06z mean has sharpened these expect better ensembles... hope this helps S

The king. NAVGEM- it’s the last time stamp @180 so don’t search for a later time lol

No worries mate I wonder how long before the GFS looks like this