SMU
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Everything posted by SMU
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Not 100% move but another 5% towards the ECM note the 138 v 144 jet look ok at the 06z on the left wind barbs note the change in direction- Its coming ..... maybe not 06z but the change is on its way - 4th run on the trot -
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I’ve got a feeling GFS will undercut like the GEM this run.... better to 84...
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You have to take a screenshot on your phone keep the run time in the pic !
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^^^ cheers TEITS Anyome fancy posting the GFS ensembles from run to run for London & day Glasgow- Im going to do the mean chart traversing the timeline- any volunteers to do the 850 graph side by side each run- nows a good time to start at they will be at the max values for 168-192... so you do 00z next to 06z then all 3 then 4 etc here are the last 3 means of the GFS 192 00z 198 18z 204 12z showing the GFs moving towards the undercut...
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GFS mean @180 now showing a larger package of energy moving SE with around 75% showing the undercut - Again steady progression is the order of the day 1 step nearer to a closed low to the SW 00z V 18z mean -
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Yep agree - I will run some commentary on it 00z into 06z
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& its a full house with Aperge stunning out to 120 as well.....
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Yes let’s Semi dismiss the GFS - but keep an eye on it expecting it to inch round each run its moving per prediction 12z > 18z > 00z In pidgeon steps.... All we need is a decent ECM At least the cold has now hit T72....
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@snowray SE / E / NE grinds to a halt if GEM lands !! UKMO 144 follows the GEM
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UKMO / GEM identical @120 as well with that triangular High-
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UKMOs on the bus @96 @ 120 ! ( just a smidge warmer through 120 ) but the flows flat so no warmer @144
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-9c 850 down to the wash @96- light Kent streamer @ 108 can we undercut now !!!
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Let’s have a round of applause
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
SMU replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Gust front going through London now... -
& the last one showing the GFs swing mean 192 18z V 204 12z note the deep cut of energy going SE on the 18z ( lower heights ) & the shape of the Azores high diving SE also note the wave height of the Scandi high on the 18z - higher amplitude Shaky 168-180
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GFS ens undercutters PTB 2 PTB 3 PTB 4 PTB 5 PTB 10 !! PTB 15 !! PTB 18 !!!!
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Notice the GFS mean has the core of the low heights in Spain where a GEM / ECM eastern Spain / SW france that is the difference between the 5/10 degrees of flow we need from Easterly with a hint of SE ( GFS ) to Easterly with a hint of NE ( ECM/GEM ) post that. Undercut...
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So watch to look for tomorrow at 96 -120 we are looking for a more triangular high with the emphasis of lots of CAA down the eastern flank - this will stop the high slipping east The angle of the flow needs to be ENE like the GEM / ECM
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The 78 mean is a lot better than the 84 12z although that’s probably by luck more than skill
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The GFS control displaying the same levels of fail & correction as the OP this is at 66/72 18z/12z not sure how anyone can give any credibility to this model ( in this scenario ) whatsoever
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GFS 234 V 240 note how the signal is now stronger for a Scandi high with a bit of an undercut...
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R.E.M. I said meeting point 70/30 poss-
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204 V 210 You will note more of a scandi block morphing back west- only another 34 runs of moving to go 18z first Some energy underneath but minimal lets say 85/15 upwards / under next run becomes 82/18 then 79/21 in 10 runs time that will be 60/40 & the GFS will look totally different ( around 168 )
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GFS 192 stage 1 of backtrack. cant get Atlantic through East so next option is upwards. Final GFS option is underneath. Note the Scandi High still in place now.
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It’s just a poor run. It cannot carve anything SW - it wants everything to go SE
