SMU

Wait is that a mid Atlantic ridge appearing - raising the titanic? Wait is that a low undercutting? wait is that Scandi high now circular? Where did that recarving jet come from?

Cheers no use whatsoever lol

Er not quite 06Z / 00z side by side.... consistently inconsistent-

That’s unlikely - it will be before then - day 7/8 The model you use above is GFS based - which at this stage is as bad as using the 500mb plot for predicting the future. The GFS is still trying to carve out the high on the 06z but again is working on an improved solution. 06z first more vertical motion upwards instead of NE more Southerly motion - watch the Azores shortwave now developing T90 on the GFS wasnt There before....

Morning All - I crashed & burned after x2 330 model starts lol- It’s clear that the overnights haven’t been quite as fruitful as hoped - The Peter Snow swingometer has had a bit more swing to the GFS - 70/30 now - (70 ECM /30 GFS ) The blocking isn’t the issue- it will be the energy traversing underneath- just as a reminder here is the 2 big guns lined up 00z yesterday to 00z today 192 yest V 168 today GFS ECM It’s pretty clear from the above that the GFS has done most of the changing- however where the ECM lost some continuity is weaker heights to the East & SE - not allowing for the CAA to rush west. not quite sure what people are saying victory to the GFS lol. lets remind ourselves of the 216 00z the day before The GFS had nothing - ECM pretty good.. So there it is expect lots of changes again today -70/30 is the blend - if it gets worse 12z then it may end up 65/35 Any sigh of UKMO 168!? dont Be down beat yet....

^^ yeah high lifting along with that vortex chunk would be similar to IKON did say 144 was transition day — 12z should see better clarity meanwhile GFS edging closer..

Yeah a slide UKMO 144 very very similar to ECM 144 last night

IKON out the blocks out to 180

Updated 18z NAVGEM

So just to be clear what camp is that in as it moves location every 6 hours - pretty much like the Scandi high on its output- GFS V pretty much every other model tonight - even it’s partner the NAVGEM has undercut on the 12z.

Anyone got the UKMO 168... GFS 18z broken again past 120 ( the actual run not meteociel ...)

Yep - now we will need another day to traverse 96-144 to get the upper High being undercut....

& here we go that’s 100% Swing to the Euro / GEM blend now over a space of 36 hours. Watch the daytime maxima tumble on this GFS run with snow flurries in the E&NE

@nick sussex it was the UKMO conversion table

ECM 15 day T2Ms best yet .... Expecting the GFs 18z to continue its move...

Steady Eddie @216 - uk cold pool evident snow in SE along the kink

ECM 120 flat Easterly with minimal intrusion of the 0c isotherm we are now in the building stage 144 - so if it’s going to be great it will be 168 not 144 - but 144 will be the clue... S

Right so here’s the summary based on history & experience - The GFS Operational has completed a fifth consecutive run of backing away from the Atlantic rolling over the Scandi high- The operational has now reached the point where the energy distribution at 144-192 has balanced towards more in the southern arm, with an undercutting feature develop- this careful juggling of energy is now favouring a continued continental flow- however the GFS is not deep cold - Its transitioning from mild - now to cold- it needs to continue transitioning today & tomorrow to leap at least 80/85% to the GEM / ECM solution. So far it’s about halfway- If there are people saying there’s no change then they are totally inaccurate. So in summary the GFS / GEFS are swinging on the pendulum. The UKMO / GEM / JMA (84) are the ‘trendsetters’ based on history more so the UKMO they are seemingly resolving the equation to a higher degree presenting a big undercut & flow of continental air- Its important to remember that both UKMO & GEM present a lull ( possible slight increase in uppers at day 6 ) in terms of the evolution this hasn’t changed - we bring in the cold air then its partially mixed out in the steep Easterly gradient - The recovery in 850s is almost academic whether the south sees 0c or -4c it will make minimal difference at the surface - The theta E charts will be around 10c & dewpoints well below zero - so surface temps will be <3c. The lull period approx 24-36 hours is where the next period of modelling is developing / refining- The high that isn’t sinking is propped up by the energy cutting south east across Spain allowing the high to build in situ - The UKMO @144 ( within a slight tolerance of the 00z ) is still showing the building period & is still of the shape that it will retrograde North like the GEM ( This is the GFS area of weakness ) So for phase 2 if you like of this Easterly we are looking at tomorrow’s UKMO 144 to see where it builds to & what the flow is in terms of winds across Europe- The short term pattern is nailed ( almost ) but slight deviations in that flow at 78 means the difference between -8c for the SE at the weekend or -2c, the optimal flow is the JMA 84 - winds North of East about 80 degrees I do expect the ECM to be like the GEM - & better than the UKMO - hopefully the initial allignment is favourable ***** NOTE ***** if the initial allignment stays like the JMA then expect some convective snow FLURRIES over the weekend in the East - more granular than snow- If the flow is flatter with -2s etc we won’t get much at all in terms of convection.... cheers.

Give the poor model a chance it’s only just worked out what’s happening let alone placement.... No real change tonight - GEM great - UKMO following with colder air day 7 ECM expected to be great... S

No time to post just yet but look at the GFS - how much it’s transformed to the euros todays swingometer UKMO / GEM 10% to GFS GFS. 60% to Euros original estimate 80/20 looks to be about right...

Last one from me 156 mean - first GFS mean to show a parcel of breakaway energy moving SE splitting off the main flow just SW of UK

But ^^ 06z mean V 00z mean shows more & more Easterly component - 126/132 Note the mean of the eastern end of the block less saggy = more recarving SW

Page before - same as GEM/ECM

So there’s your 06z @192 Just a small swing we now have an undercut- That’s from 4 runs going from nothing to this - I mentioned yesterday GFS is usually 2-3 days behind the ECM - today is day 2.

& now @156 the jet even more in evident - Northern arm beginning to fail 06z first 00z second core of the wind barbs west of Spain are SE - 00z was NE