SMU

Could be a few inches in the sweet zones !

also PPN to the NW of that line intensified across 1230-1245 radar grab

The PPN band is pushing south & East - heavier stuff running along a line from Chippenham down to Glastonbury places in the heavy snow zone like Gloucester could do very well... s

Glad I’m now 150M !

A good couple of hours- obv if your just on the eastern fringes the poss longer..

This is sweet spot at the mo- especially the northern part - it’s starting to slide east - the chilterns look like getting hit badly...

Your allowed to wAke up wifey when it snows rules of engagement...

Lots of snow reports in the SW now - settling snow checked the 11:45-12 radar & that areas ppm is starting the eastward migration ... S

Great stuff guys - don’t forget the camera !!!

Based on the radar returns the West / SW midlands look in prime position- estimates will be this stage 1-5 >50M 3-8 50-100M & 5-10 to around 150M if you higher than 200M you may hit the magical +15cm jackpot.

The centre of circulation is obvious on this radar grab so the whole of the SE is being pumped with SW winds ATM The wrap around is approx Bristol up to Hereford - that’s going to take about 8-10 hours to sweep across to us... S

Normally the crossover at moderate snow to start to settle is about 0.7c- however intense snow will accumulate ( badly ) up to about 1.3c Anyone sub 1c will soon have a covering !

Here we go guys another 1-2 hours...

The radar is real but transitions are based on model parameters at the same time ! anyway - midlands best of luck!!

The radar returns in terms of rain sleet & snow are not real ! They are model based wait for reports on here !

Interesting little feature on UKMO 72

Morning All The recent updates in the zonal wind plots @10MB continue to temper any proposed significant deceleration post peak on New Year’s Day- The mean now peaks @ 52M/S which ironically is all but identical to last year- Its worth watching over the next 5-7 days as the deceleration- originally progged to develop from 1st to about the 8th along a sharp gradient is now just forecast to dip to average to about the 10th- This is obviously ensemble driven data & not entirely reliable at day 10-16 however the ‘trend’ isn’t going the right way- For that reason the forecast would be less than 5% chance of Greenland high developing before the 7th less than 25% chance of a Scandi high developing before the 7th * The 7th being that the chosen date because that’s the current projection to be around average in terms of the zonal wind. The strat once coupled will nearly always trump the troposphere in terms of driving the blocking until there is a significant warming event to impact it- No SSW forecast out to at least the 7th... Generally the Nina base state with the -EPO ridge driving cold into the NE states looks to be the only MLB - with short interludes of cool/ chilly polar North westerlies being our only chances for snow. The update may change however confidence is fairly high for the next 10-12 days.. S

The coloured echoes aren’t reality they are ‘guesses’ based on the model parameter at the time..

When you review your bets check the location your bookie uses as its not always the same as the met office- when I checked before there Always low locations minimising the prospect of falling snow There not stupid !

Updated 36

ECM track at 48 ( no 36 yet ) looks a fair way south...

Afternoon - A little shift south on the IKON hi res- interestingly this run gives the SE around 4 - 6 hours of snow- accumulation chart reflects that below The downs look good- although chilterns better- expecting a dusting here at 150m HAPPY CHRISTMAS !!

Indeed. Also I’m not quite sure why it seems to be coming as a surprise to everyone - when it was highlighted many days ago - when we review & quantify the the net change of the zonal wind from the First week December to the last day of the year then it was blindingly obvious about a week ago that it was going Pete tong. The zonal wind forecasts have got stronger & stronger over the past 10 days To the point where I highlighted it was getting close to the record breaking Nino from a couple of Decembers ago. So any forecast that was released pre 10 days ago relating to ongoing blocking etc is now redundant - is has been a complete burn. ( including my thoughts of persistence based on November’s profiles ) The forecast for zonal weather should now be the headline until at least the midpoint of week 1 Jan - by then the GFS suite has the zonal wind dropping off again. so that’s where it is today- not in a great place..

I sort of tend to agree with you - The problem with global teleconnections is that at best you are hoping to second guess what ‘influence’ will be in charge 10-15 days down the line. Some signals are more pronounced for NW Europe, others less so. The issue being though that nearly all cold forecasts are based on a deck of cards usually relying on either the MJO aligning into the right phase or the strat decelerating so that it either reverses or becomes a decoupled feature. The reason the cold forecasts appeared on here generally related to the fact that thus far through December the Troposphere was running the show not allowing the Downwelling strat winds to penetrate down past 10MB however in the past 5-7 days the GFS peak forecasts for the zonal wind have continually increased - & now see the crest just 2 or 3 M/S slower than the all time strat record- in this case then its total wipeout for Northern blocking- you can liken the speed to the most positive AO phases of the 90s or the December not to remember a couple of years a ago. So the expectation has changed now & the GFS 16 day ensembles all have a high peak of zonal winds for the start of Jan - however a sharp gradient of decline in Jan back to below ave levels.. so based on that week 2/3 may yield a high prospect of HLBs until then - continual battering of westerly winds will be in offering often storm force straight through the nose of the UK. No planned cold other than transient events ( although globally we could get 1 MLB ) so an outside chance of a scandi week 1 Jan but unlikely- More chance of persistent Azores high ridging East.. As Mentioned the zonal wind drops off sharp so all is not lost for Jan- it could be the reverse of December.... S

Just to add wind ( storms ) / rain / warmth are sadly the watch words to the new year-