SMU

Remember still 18 hours to go... 3 runs of the models !

Hi the white hatchings is snow - if you look at the bottom of your image you will see the colours is the scale of the PPN New ash green. 0.0c

Yes mind you maybe ( I havent looked ) the high res models are placing us in the EC zone with the system overhead as the track is now swinging further South... 0.2c.

Just got home pleasently surprised at the outside temp- just 0.3C already with all the puddles still frozen then to see some of the high res models !!! Need about another 20-30 miles really for Kent but fantastic stuff!!! S

GEM12z takes an even more southerly track with a very compressed system - exit point now down to Kent ( & to think it started around Newcastle especially on the GFS) Snowline very very close to London with 24 hours to go... Because the system is getting flatter & flatter the cut off line & transition point is so fine that the second the centre point passes so the cold air pushes back south again... S

The updated 12z has quite a big shift south with the initial low- maybe another 50 miles or so, its really clear on the PPN chart between 36 V 42- Northern extent now north wales across to Lincs - Looks superb for the midlands... S

Cheers anything snow related amsouth of thames yet + elevation 200M/600FT s

Whats ukv? UKmet?

The shift south should have always been expected from Day 1, once a slider scenario is expected to varify then the intra run differences usually net out a southerly correction across the day- so whilst theres the odd northerly Jog in a single run the day as a whole is south. The current high res models have now generally all landed in about the same place so if your slap bang in the middle of the red zone your pretty safe, however its the fringes that remain interesting - with 18-24 hours to go the scope for movement of the PPN band - Exciting times ahead with aperges view on Monday

Im optimistic about a dusting Monday- having that bit of elevation should support a more wintry picture ! Im also expecting a few flakes tomorrow- im only 20 miles from the hirlam snow zone so still in with a shout...

Overnight ECM looks a fair shout then 2-4 inches for the SE corner on Monday morn

Apparently so... updated NMM

Updated 18z aperge...

ECM - as you highlighted in the pic is doing what I tried to describe earlier - elongating the trough so that the cold air doesnt filter as far NE.. late in the day but still corrections happening- however if theres to be any snow south of the water then the 18z jog south needs to be followed up with another 2 jogs south 00z & 06z... S

Pics or it didnt happen

Yes - thats a good place... ( ATM ) remember its 3 days away

Yes that thin strip of light blue - think of that as the transition zone.. S dunstable downs yes- the last place I ever got stuck in the snow 2 years ago

I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies... we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down- for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN ) S

Afternoon- Things looking pretty set now for a tasty snow event for regions North of the M4 coridoor - Whilst the tracks have generally corrected south - we are now seeing minimal adjustments - Also if we look at the finer detail over the last 24 hours the Entry point over Ireland hasnt swayed to much, its the extension of the snow belt over the south - caused by the elongation of the trough - Monday is more concerning for a smaller concentrated area - so whilst there will be good coverage over a wide area sunday, Monday have some really focussed heavier bursts of snow along the boundary of the -1c isotherm- Elevated areas in the SE could find rapid build up of heavy wet snow- but there will be a sharp cut off point to rain ( expected in Mid Kent ) Anyway - enjoy the snow if it arrives !! S

Ukmo 72 shows heavy snow for SE england except for the SE of Kent Elevated areas may do well- so somewhere like Herts etc... im quite excited here ~ 150M is worth a good 1.5c... s

If thats a flat bin - 6 inches?

Temps rose to 3.3 here but have dropped back to 2.6c - impressive things beginning to get exciting next for the end of the weekend !

Yes its been checked- Northward line @48 is about peterborough & gives me about 2 hours snowfall... but looks good further west & North.. however not much correction needed on the remaining 7 runs out to T42.. Eur0 4 will be in range on the 06z S

GFS sharpens up the jet @144 & creates another midlands snow event- looks like one posted the other day 1998?? S

With everything sliding further south you would expect the monday system to... For example look at much the slider has changed in 36 hours - yet we had people saying it was a hopecast