SMU

3/10 snow flurry as I was going through bean

Shower train developing more down the M11 heading for SE essex NW kent 1.1c here! Suns gone!

The nationwide snow event is back on Lol & its made it into 192 ! ... If only we could get ECM on board UKMO & GFS6 pretty good

Morning The 06z ( alligned to UKMO 00z ) looks a fair reprentation of where will end up at day 6/7 with a North south divide & snow possibilities arriving for 'somewhere in the middle' PS - my first snow flurry today - the last day of Autumn! S

A little area of showers developed & running down the M11 - a few flurries for some !

Its not the greatest of flows but 7am Fri looks the best for suffolk & kent - again temperature pending ( the wind barbs chart would have been better to use )

Nice how do you upload a video -choose file then add from phone or insert media? still -0.9c here !

Today is all about Norfolk & Norwich that way big streamer about to hit - depends in temps I reakon it will struggle up to 2.5c here today-

I think the cut off line will be you Im to far west- although you never know- East kent streamer possible tonight temps marginal !

Yep moved away from Greenhithe - the lowest place in the UK - may as well renamed it Atlantis to New Ash Green which is 1 mile from West Kingsdown its about 150 here & the radio mast 1 mile away is 232M

A good 10-15 miles The shower was east of welling S

Light snow New Ash Green -1.1c S

^^^ this evolution very very similar to 9 March 2013 with the ridge being squeezed up NW with deep cold come round from the NE - blocking is just further west this time... A great month to be comparing with- Awsome Easterly at the end of the GFS air all the way from Siberia!

Hi @SylvainTV any chance of getting UKMO 168 on meteociel? thanks Steve

I think in terms of allignment thurs 12z to start to pinpoint that track - that will put the time line at about 72-96 instead of 120-144. confidence has grown tonight after this mornings problems - I left the MOD thread alone as wanted to see how the day developed ! control @216 EpIC -NAO/-EPO link up!

GFS mean @126 shows a significant step towards the Ops this eve- with the control a carbon copy @126 as well.. Still enough time for the UK to escape victory & head for defeat though! although happy with the blocking forecast I gave which covers 6-12 Dec...

& on it goes -10c widespread & a polar low tracking south...

Just the 12 inches of snow for North wales !!

I think the GFS has performed quite well in the run up to the current Northerly spell & its settling down again after the nervy moments this morning A wedge of high pressure does seem to get through however its the atlantic trough thats causing all the trouble- The GFS eventually brings it east to reinvigorate the Northerly where as the ECM ejects it out North- History tells us East... through the highs midpoint GFS 144 shows what I think is going to be a fair locale before it starts tracking east -

-EPO ridge

That was me in reference to the lag of the first attack on the stratosphere & the zonal wind bottoming out sub 0M/S Still happy with that assessment- Slight change in the models today injecting a bit more battleground scenarios into the mix- always good for surprise snowfall these !

NOAA need a new scale for the AO as its been battered today- lets add -7.

New Mod ern Winter for southern Greenland- Record breaking warmth of +8c @850 ...

As expected models homing in on a fabulous greenland block! Note the pattern is 8 days down the line & the cold pool just that little more extensive -8c widespread across the UK

Looking at the ECM OP V the Means for the UK suggests that the solution offered by the OP in terms of deep low at 216 > 240 driving the 0c isotherm back over the UK is likely to be incorrect !