SMU

Nescafe....

Nothing planned yet- need further tracking south ... & less onshore winds- which at the moment is a possibility- Sweet spot somewhere in the midlands which is very typical of slider scenarios

Approx in a line SE from manchester to essex

Yes this is good - the elongation acts as a barrier to the milder air!

The GFS T96 mean appears to me the safest place for the track sliding SE through Ireland - across the SW & exiting the SE- UKMO goes a little further North around Norfolk The only issue with the UKMO is it has more positive tilt ahead of the low hence more WAA into the front- thats the area more up for resolution .. ECM exit point as planned- KENT bang in line with GFS

Well yes I guess - & I would normaly go with the safety of the full 12z suite however confidence in the 06z Ensemble undepinned by consistency plus history makes it a 'considered' call- Wheres @nick sussex it used to be now we would be waiting for the GME to come out before the GFS to see any apparent changes- All- Focus on the slider from Fri-Sat onward will move to the High res models- The NME/APERGE etc to see what they are saying. current upper depths are at an elevated 15-20Cm because there expected to be a pivot point - where if your in the NW quadrent you could do very well... S

The EURO 4 is probably picking up the signlal for some embedded trough activity but not the signal for the convective showers...

Yes 2013 drifted south... Today event is 78-96 across the UK I would say the margin of error is 100 Miles north of current GFS track & 200 miles south - net 300- The next 36 hours that will refine down to a margin of about 150 miles either aide then the last 24 hours probably 50-100 miles. Post that is radar watch...

Back to the here & now & before the 12s set off on their hopecasting voyage - here is the snowfall accum chart for T48 Euro 4- A pretty impressive coverage for the UK in particular the favoured spots of the NW midlands - but Ireland ! wheres our Irish contingent - snow all the way down to dublin- Maybe even a few flurries in London again !

You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile as pointless is the one im quoting...

Yep happy with the local elevation here as well - certainly not nailed yet- Just waiting for the 06z JMA etc not for definitive tracks but for all models to be making adjustments...

Morning - I see yer more drama on the 06z ... Time after time its 'South west'... yet Some members still question why some of us document in advance the reasons why- The models are now 'resolving' the visibility of the ridge that sits to the south of iceland at T96 that little 'sausage' is becoming more & more apparent which is in turn increasing the trough disruption & track- The low is elongating so much that we are now also beginning to lose the onshore flow that for the S/SW & SE is the killer here side by side is the 18z V 06z you will now the negative tilt & south Easterly flow on the 06z v the more positive 18z ... Its all getting rather interesting... Wales > Cotswolds in the £££ seat or just the hills in Devon if it holds true to form & history!! S

UKMO following GFS lead... all going SW...

Another westward step towards where we started- ooh that 00z ECM track looks so far away now...

Yes because usually thats how far the inshore flow pushes the milder air ahead of the front - no blocking usually means no snow in these zones...

I think you confuse excited with exciting.... Its exciting watching the models & running through the different permutations however Im only excited when there is deep cold from the east @T48 .. So pretty much 2009/2010 & 2013 with regards to the weather - other occasions are when the SE gets in cold air then the winds slacken off generating a local cold pool- Anyway enough about me... 9/10 - thats how often the exciting charts dont verify... - but dont shoot the messenger... maybe those 39k likes were imaginary... This week has been exciting & I believe the GFS has performed well especially now as we see the ECM trending both the uppers downwards over the 48-72 area & corrected the slider South today- Will it snow in the SE - the slider would have to elongate further to steer away the milder SW onshore flow - or become so shallow theres no mixing- so probably 60/40 against... but still a maybe - The key here is theres no undecut from the continent & that being absent we are always suceptable to the milder SW flow ahead of the fronts... lets see what the 00zs bring- * Look for GFS maintaining -10c 850s * Look for the peak 850s to be lower in the temp warm up ( circa -3 ) * Secondary slider a distinct possibility * FI heights pushing up towards greenland again... best all s

UKMO Recovers although a frustrating 120 chart GFS VERY good all the way for midlands North - a slightly milder blip for the SW UKMO is the eastern point of the cone, The GEM is the western point- GFS still pumping out some deep cokd minima next week !

GFS much better for more snow UKMO rain for pretty much everyone @120- so no resolution yet

& just to add to BAs comparison here is the GFS mean V the ECM op- so that 20% cluster looks to flat- The slider is taking on the right shallow shape now - historically the Midlands do well here although Dec 81 saw the allignment further south.. S

Morning All well after yesterday & if you fancied yourself as a bit of a mystic meg you could have almost have predicted the 00z runs to 192 GFS fantastic, UKMO almost as good- ECM - progressive to the EAST.. it will be an interesting scenario to watch but the ECM ( based on history ) will be wrong with the track.... lots of snow to come for some this weekend & a string of days with sub 2c maxima- maybe 6-7 at least... S PS at least ECM finishes with a 4 wave pattern !

Yes yes shallow- tick no onshore SW flow -tick low heights - tick cold uppers - tick PPN - tick The snow accum charts for Mon will look like some of those ECM ENS !! ( not the Op ) Anyway cold now hanging on well...

Got to call you a wrong there mate based on the last Northerly evolution & this evolution that ECM has been poor again being very progressive always at the eastern point of the envelope.. Also the ECM especially in the 12z has been the run 2-3 days where I have gone through it & thought - thats not going to happen! However they have probably had some elements that have been wrong... Anyway who really cares - UKMO coming out well again... onward & upward with the sliders they need to be as shallow as possible to minimise warm air mixing... S

I cant even be bothered to comment on the operational ECM its been poor & progressive in the last 5-7 days producing poor runs against its own means & against the UKMO & GFS. The expected track ( based on all observed examples ) is that the slider lows will be further SW & sharper, however as highlighted before with no blocking ahead of them then for the SW & south the forward push of milder uppers will mean low chances of snow- the system will have to be very shallow further North & East may be colder but run the risk of being dry.. so other than that great runs tonight- wind an issue for Scotland as well- all the Ski resorts will be storm bound at the weekend with blizzards- windchill poss -20 maybe even -25c... Elsewhere troughs & streamers ( Cheshire gap etc ) will be abundent ... Looking forward to better resolution of the sliders over the next 48 hours... S

@Tom Jarvis will do a post later about sliders / upper values thia current situation isnt great for the south / south west... s

Cracking output so far- sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST- UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c.. GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model... awaits GFS FI...