SMU

The GFS strat forecasts this morning are as dire as they can be - approaching +VE levels like the nino December from ( 15?16?)... not much HLB could survive that- all forecasts should be mild ATM

Yes mate once they go over the pole & get west of the meridian again it’s a non starter !

There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia- no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least

A decent ish UKMO @144 keeps the dream alive possibly for NI & North western areas for Xmas day ! The high across the pole is worth watching at this stage as well as it’s exact location is hard to model.... S

Cheers theres am outside chance of some snow Xmas day due to timings of a polar Northwesterly - that would Be more luck than anything !

Morning All very poor few days of modelling - The strat outlook looks to have positive anomalies more dominant that originally expected leaving us in the All to familiar run of strong westerlies... no change expected to the new year now.. Have a good Xmas. S

4-5 inches for you tonight poss

2.6 here & dropping nice 50/50 some flakes 70/30 against a dusting- maybe up at WK

Great stuff send it first class to NW Kent-

Temp down to 3.9c here a drop of 0.6c in 15mins expecting to be sub 2 by 9pm !

Could be a good night for you guys again.. wheres @Sperrin

I would hazard a guess to say cold clustering from the east...

Guys keep an eye on this high pressure day 7/8- it’s angle is pitching North West going against the flow- Greenland High pressures come from highs that either ridge North out of the Azores or North West from the uk ( circa 2010 ) I’m not saying it will however...

Afternoon All A couple of days off from the MOD thread feels like having a nice shower ! It’s a pity someone didn’t drown the models over the last 48-72 hours.. Anyway we are edging along to Christmas with 12 days ( 288 hrs ) to the big day - & things have taken a turn for the worst in terms of NH profiles - however will it last? This end of November & the start of winter has all been about the disconnect of the troposphere from the stratosphere- & whether that relationship can stay intact long enough that we can continue to see blocking in favourable places to promote cold over the UK- This has worked so far however we will shortly be putting this to the test as we see a burst of faster winds at the 10MB level in the stratosphere - the image from the Hannah attard site shows this very clear- The problem with just looking at this level though doesn’t show you whether that wind speed is filtering down through the layers- The height where the Trop / strat coupling occurs at about so we should not only look at the windspeed @10MB but also below between around 30MB The image below shows the wind anomalies across the height profile - where the burst of energy is being detected - As we can see the lower layers have been running below average for a while oscillating down to well below average - if you look close you can see that the burst of winds struggles to penetrate down to past 10MB indicating that any strengthening of the vortex may be short lived V it’s pre disposed base state this year which is weak - As an aside from this some Historic data in EQBO years generally suggest a contraction of the vortex into a more concentric circle is often a signal of vortex implosion in the lead up to a SSW ( one to watch ) I think we see a strong vortex develop in the next 5-8 days possibly a bit longer before the pattern breaks again back to the preferential state of a more broken & sporadic vortex leading to chunks being spread around- The -EPO ridge ( prominent in LA Nina years ) will be a semi permanent feature this year & I will be looking for this to support Atlantic ridge get going forward - Christmas ( being cold ) is still in the picture although because of the timescales we may be looking for cold later in the Xmas period as opposed to sooner... lets get the next 72 - 96 hours under our belt & start to watch for repetitive signals for further blocking again... best S

0.0c here sheet ice. farewell snow see you next year(outside chance this week)- Xmas period looking very mild in the run up

Looks like that streamer is still going in Great Yarmouth- probably an inch or 2 down?!

Yep nothing in long field it’s bad up here because it’s lumps of frozen slush - it’s like boulders now

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-1.1c here & frozen solid total sheet ice here

Great Yarmouth streamer !

Temps below freezing now -0.2c & no more dripping lots of ice to come!!

well back home here - West Kingsdown 4cm +0.2c, NAG 2cm +0.8c Waiting for the clear skies & the next bout of cold...

Nearly home at orpington crystal clear skies out to the North- expecting a few CM at home....

Going home at 230 eta a20 about 330-345 estimating it being tricky - depends on whether any accidents i have a choice - come off & go brands hatch or a20 come off west kingsdown...

Cant wait to het home later heavy snow here in orpington means very heavy at home the forecast of accumulations over 400 feet are spot on! lookinh at the radar im expecting 5-6 cm at west kingsdown & 2-4 at home