AWD

That is cunningly very similar to the GFS 12z raw output.

If you ever want to talk through the very basics to get you started, I’d be happy to run through the basics with you (via PM obviously) whenever. I’m no expert or anything, but I can read a chart & understand the broad brush data modelling gives out. Alternatively there is the learning thread, where the likes of John Holmes, Knocker & a few others have produced some great learning points if you have some time and would like to delve deeper into the weather world. Don’t be scared to learn, there are plenty of more relaxed and mature places on this forum that would happily help, outside of the crazy antics of the model output thread.

Doesn’t feel like the days are getting longer when it’s constantly cloudy, dull & gloomy. I can count on one had the amount of sunny days or part days I’ve had IMBY. About another month or so before I personally start to notice the longer days, lighter evenings. It’s then when my mood lifts and I look forward to spring, summer and all the sunshine, warmth and hopefully convective/storm potential that brings.

Weather apps are generally computer generated and have no human input. Be cautious over any forecast from weather apps, regardless of whether it’s mild/cold/wet/dry. I always prefer the text forecasts from the Met Office for example.

UKV model now coming into range for the first half of next week. Shows a steady flow of snow showers over much of Scotland & Northern Ireland throughout Monday & Tuesday, with these also starting to infiltrate NW England, North Wales and even into the Midlands by late Tuesday; Just another option to consider for those in the aforementioned, affected areas.

Cloud cover &/or wind will limit overnight lows . I was at work until late last night & there was a stiff breeze blowing around then, making it feel bitter despite a rather modest temperature reading on the thermometer. Next few days should see temperatures tick up a bit to more average values (give or take) before another cold plunge looks likely to start the new working week next Monday. With regards to next week, still far too early to make sensible predictions personally. A look at the broader pattern suggest much, if not all of the working week will remain colder than average with any uptick to milder conditions not expected until next weekend, as per the latest MetO medium range forecast (perhaps a little earlier for coastal counties & Cornwall/Devon). As for snow, who knows, I wouldn’t like to guess right now. If it’s colder than average though, then there’s always a chance I suppose. PPN distribution at this stage won’t be modelled too well. MetO medium range forecast maintains a risk throughout the week before milder air eventually wins out, they’re the best to listen to for now so go with that as a broad brush analysis. One positive, at least it’s dry and looking that way for the immediate future.

And so the countdown to the great blizzard of 2024 begins;

Below are the latest Mogreps ensemble set for Plymouth, so well down into the SW; You can see, using the upper air temperature graph, that there is good agreement on a less cold (possibly even relatively mild weekend coming up) before another cold plunge into the start of the new working week. Once we hit the 16th the spread of options starts increasing and we lose any sort of clarity. Anything from a continuation of cold conditions to a return to average (milder) conditions is equally possible. This is all associated to how a developing area of LP interacts with the colder air coming down from the north. Whilst we have such a wide range of options on the table, individual operational runs will be worthless for micro detail. Therefore don’t take much notice of any PPN forecast for next week would be my advice, regardless of whether such charts show heavy snow or heavy rain over our region. At least for now, the coming 5/6 days ahead look relatively dry and somewhat less cold so a good chance to dry out and get any outdoor chores/activities done.

Always better in the regionals. Much more calmer and relaxed here. All they are talking about is events 6+ days away in the Model thread, micro detail that will change repeatedly over the next few days still. Not worth over analysing next weeks weather at this early stage yet. See where we are come the weekend.

Absolutely buzzing for next weeks big event, historic winter weather. That sleet symbol on Thursday is making me all giddy already; Only question is, how many sledges do I buy before the prices go up astronomically? *note - sarcasm may be detected*

Sorry, I’m at work near Frome currently.

Meanwhile, the here & now, it’s absolutely Baltic out there now, definitely the coldest it’s been all winter (personally). And I have a blizzard flurry. IMG_0781.mov

Ages away, next week. Pointless looking at detailed micro conditions for next week at such a range. Come back to that at the end of this week. Although as others have said, we are the last to get a northerly and the first to lose a northerly so I wouldn’t set expectations too high regardless.

At work near Frome and I can confirm we have the rare combination of a snow flurry with some sunshine. Snow seen this winter now, winter fix achieved. Bring on some warmer, stormier weather now.

Hoping that the upper flow backs more straight easterly as the day progresses, to push any PPN activity further inland and west, as at the moment there’s too much of a SW’rly track to them with a flow heading roughly towards the IOW and the channel. A bit IMBY admittedly, apologies.

Every possibility we could see some flakes pretty much anywhere, although Hampshire & Dorset favoured for our part of the region. I’d keep those ski’s & sledges firmly padlocked away in the garage though.

Cosy Sunday night in here whilst the temperature outside drops. Arsenal v Liverpool first, lamb roast dinner after then a poke into the model thread for a bit of post dinner comedy! Perfect!

If I were a cold/snow lover (not me personally, I’m more into thunderstorms and convective activity), then I would be very happy with that MetO update, especially considering the extended modelling this morning. Essentially it goes with battleground snowfall over the UK, without an idea where. Detail like that won’t be known anytime soon.

Agreed! The wife said much the same to me last night.

I wouldn’t get too caught up with anything you read in the model discussion thread if you value your sanity! I’m not really sure what they are all getting hysterical about in there. The outlook for the foreseeable (after today’s rain) is predominantly dry, turning colder with chilly days and some frosty nights. That’s about it! After mid month, who knows, that’s pie in the sky currently.

Apologies if this has already been discussed, I’ve been away from the weather world for a while what with the festivities etc, but just catching up and I see we have a very unusual, amber wind warning for areas around the M4 corridor. Does this suggests the MetO are seeing a funnelling effect of strong wind gusts up the Bristol Channel and across the Cotswolds/Chilterns? Can’t say it’s particularly windy here today, yet!

South West regional thread, Wales regional thread, Premier League thread, Covid thread & EFL & FA Cup thread at the moment.

I appear to be having issues accessing certain threads to. Many threads in the Lounge & Serious Discussion areas of the forum, along with regionals just return the below message when I try and enter them; I am signed in for what it’s worth.

What an awful awful day here today. Cold, wet and miserable. We seem to be stuck on a pivoting area of heavy rain, stretching essentially up the M5 corridor.

Not very often you see falling snow in Metrological Autumn on the South Coast!