Chris.R

Thicknesses and 850s not always convertible imo.

Well we are all buggered then, except for Will obviously!

IMBY post again: If I take the 850s at face value then just looks like hail/graupel now apart from Tuesday night, Thursday night and at the back edge of any runners. I cannot take them at face value however because I’m not sure what effect the very low dewpoints will have in offsetting the underwhelming 850s. It will have some effect but I’m not sure to what extent.

I’ll settle for some good lightning and hail and some nice close thunder. That will do fine from this set up.

Yes indeed. I know there’s no point worry about small details yet.

They never do for our region. I think our forecasters have an aversion to the word snow.

They never mention snow specifically in these setups always just wintry showers. Name me one occasion when they did.

Met text forecast. Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Rain and gales will clear on Monday, bringing much colder weather with frequent showers through Tuesday and Wednesday. These will be squally and often wintry with hail and thunder possible. I’d say that’s about right.

I know that :-) I wrote a post about my thoughts yesterday.

I’ve got some -2 at times all week which is what you want to see for good lightning and large hail. Looks about the same instability as December with a few hundred J of CAPE so i’m expecting lightning to be quite frequent.

Big upgrade of 850s and thicknesses from the 6Z for Tuesday night. Looking good even for here now for a few hours. Wednesday night‘s runner is nice and further north now, although it does bring a warm sector, but I’m just concerned about keeping those off-shore winds, that’s all that matters to me at this point. Thursday night interesting again as 850s and fitnesses lower again after the runner. Friday night still looking very good as winds veer NNW. .

SST watch. Crosby is apparently still at 6.7°C today, 0.9°C below the long-term average. I am thinking though that it may only have a resolution of 1°F which is why it jumped so far down the other day from 7.2°C (45°F) to 6.7°C (44°F) and has then stayed the same. It will probably go to 6.1°C, 43°F in a few days. It is the NOAA satellite data so maybe they only go in 1 °F resolution.

I know it’s like another world. He gets our 2010 every year!

I got two occasions of five minutes of falling snow on the 9th. Also half an hour of heavy snow from evaporative cooling which gave a dusting on the 15th but in a slightly different set up with -3 850s. .

Another slider going south again. All in the mod thread praying for it to go further south and I’m reading and just thinking no don’t, Please not again!

Oh now GFS 12z showing winds backing off-shore Wednesday night as that little low crosses. This could be very very interesting if it occurs like that. My anticipation increasing now for next week.

The apps are a huge pile of cr*p until 48 hours out, and then mostly just a somewhat smaller pile of cr*p after that!

Yes, especially if runners back wins off-shore as they pass.

I Expect rain and snow to make up 10% or less of all precipitation within 15 miles of the coast, 90% will be hail or graupel.

Right then. Haven’t caught up with this thread yet so these are just my initial thoughts. I have no shame in saying that this is a rather imby post because it has to be as the coastal strip will be experiencing different conditions to inland next week regardless of what happens. The first thing that strikes me is the impressive lapse rates that we will have from Tuesday morning onwards,with 500 mbar temperatures constantly between -35 and -40; so potential for some very lively showers. Lightning will occur probably quite frequently around the area, especially during the night and in the coldest pockets of air. 850 mbar temperatures do not seem to me to be conducive for coastal falling snow all the time, so I am only expecting to see snow in very heavy and/or prolonged showers. At the very least though I’m expecting a rarther interesting week of convection with showers of hail, graupel and sleet, with wet snow at times. Friday night looks interesting to me if forecasts continue to suggest winds veering northerly; I can see a snow event for the coast at that point. In summary, I am not expecting any lying snow here except for possibly an hour or two here and there, although I expect coverings of hail and graupel to be rather persistent. I do expect to see falling snow but only transiently. Apart from that, looking forward to the convective potential and to reading other reports from across the region even though they will most likely make me jealous. :-)

SST watch. Crosby is still at 6.7°C, no change from yesterday, 0.9°C below the long-term average. Something seems suspect with the data however as all nearby observations are the same and just doesn’t feel right. Hosting my thoughts about next week in a minute.

4.2°C here to the 11th, 0.5°C below the 1981-2010 average. Looking around average next week from a Maritime sauce so should be above the cet again by this time next week unfortunately.

Do you remember what day that 8.9°C last month was recorded on? I reckon you could roughly use the sst figure as the 850s figure so we needed -8.9 850s last month now we only need -6.7 850s. I got snow from the last one anyway.

** sst watch. Crosby is down to 6.7°C today which is 0.5°C lower than this time yesterday. Running 0.9°C below the long-term average. Anyone know when the last time they were this far below average was? It could make all the difference next week.