Chris.R

True, Tuesday night is looking much better.

Well imby nothing has really changed since my post the other day, but I will do. I will of course keep reporting my current conditions over the next few days as well. :-)

Well i’m not Ian but I agree. ?

Liverpool TAF going for heavy rain showers all day, accompanied by cumulonimbus from 1800. Oh no sorry they remove the cumulonimbus.

Here is the latest text forecast since nobody has posted it yet. Today: A mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers today. It will be turning colder throughout the day, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills. A windy day, with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Maximum temperature 9 °C. Tonight: A cold and windy night, with clear spells and blustery showers. The showers falling as snow over the hills, but also to some low levels. Risk of icy patches. Minimum temperature 0 °C. Tuesday: Sunny spells and blustery showers on Tuesday. The showers falling as snow over the hills, but increasingly to some low levels. Very windy, with gales in places. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature 5 °C. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Windy and cold throughout, with sunny spells and wintry showers on Wednesday. Some stormy weather potentially crossing all parts overnight, followed by further wintry showers on Thursday and Friday. An upgrade. Not a bad forecast overall.

Excellent chance of lightning on Tuesday night and again Thursday night when highest CAPE occurs.

Obviously if this Lo does end up bringing damaging wins as currently forecast then please everybody stay safe; that goes without saying.

I never even mentioned the possible wind event lol just Lfc and lightning.

When did I mention a 100 mph storm?

You can keep your snow; what a win!!! Sorry couldn’t resist. Very excited about some lightning fun this week.

Latest Met text. Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Tuesday, frequent wintry showers and strong wind will continue. Winds and showers will ease on Wednesday. Further rain overnight into will precede some very strong winds for Thursday. Downgrade in wording. Edit: snap.

I’ll post the Liverpool one as I usually do tomorrow. That one only goes out to 24 hours.

Agreed. Don’t worry, I’ll be making the most of what ever I get. I’m a thunderstorm nut in summer anyway so I love this kind of weather.

A Coulda night than forecast, currently 2.4°C which is a little surprising. Don’t give up on the runner yet guys, it’s still over 84 hours away. Who here can ever forget when 84 hours before the 10th of December we were all expecting to be buried in snow and yet that low ended up a hundred miles further south!

How about this one: Monday: Strong winds and blustery showers will persist all day. It will feel colder later and showers will fall increasingly as snow over hills, with sleet in the cities by nightfall. Maximum temperature 6 °C. Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Wintry showers and strong cold winds will continue, sometimes accompanied by thunder near the coast. Snow will settle widely over the hills, even leaving a centimetre or two lower down. ???️️

Thicknesses and 850s not always convertible imo.

Well we are all buggered then, except for Will obviously!

IMBY post again: If I take the 850s at face value then just looks like hail/graupel now apart from Tuesday night, Thursday night and at the back edge of any runners. I cannot take them at face value however because I’m not sure what effect the very low dewpoints will have in offsetting the underwhelming 850s. It will have some effect but I’m not sure to what extent.

I’ll settle for some good lightning and hail and some nice close thunder. That will do fine from this set up.

Yes indeed. I know there’s no point worry about small details yet.

They never do for our region. I think our forecasters have an aversion to the word snow.

They never mention snow specifically in these setups always just wintry showers. Name me one occasion when they did.

Met text forecast. Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Rain and gales will clear on Monday, bringing much colder weather with frequent showers through Tuesday and Wednesday. These will be squally and often wintry with hail and thunder possible. I’d say that’s about right.

I know that :-) I wrote a post about my thoughts yesterday.

I’ve got some -2 at times all week which is what you want to see for good lightning and large hail. Looks about the same instability as December with a few hundred J of CAPE so i’m expecting lightning to be quite frequent.