Chris.R

The flow veers another 15° before midnight So any streamers that form should gradually move southward.

Temp 4.9 dp 0.8

I stand by what I said before. Maybe more like 5–6 pm now.

Currently 5.5/1.5.

See my post from before. Things should start exploding soon. Expect some extreme convection by this evening.

Not enough instability (LI)until now. The energy was there but no trigger.

With those numbers I would expect reports of very large hail with frequent lightning very lightly. possibly several strikes a minute in some cells.

I’m very shocked. At 20:00 this evening I have 1078 J/kG of CAPE and -5 LI! Never thought I’d see those numbers outside of summer. Surprised there’s not any more activity in this thread actually.

I’m actually quite shocked. Never thought I’d see CAPE numbers like that outside of summer. Wow! So excited for this evening.

I have been waiting for the 6Z to say this. For all those worrying about shower activity: the LI (a measure of the instability in the air)is on a nosedive from now on which enables the convective available potential energy (CAPE) to be released this afternoon. By 20:00 I have 1080 J/kG of CAPE and an LI of -5! I cannot emphasise enough how rare it is the sea figures so high in winter. If we do not see some substantial showers with lightning activity by 4 PM, then I am a chocolate frog!

I hope i’m right as well! ?

Starting temp/dewpoint checks now. Currently 5.0/2.2.

We’ll start seeing showers like that once the colder air and steeper lapse rates arrive this afternoon.

I did say that the other day :-)

You’ve got another 11 hours and 30 minutes until it starts.

The difference between midnight and 6 AM is enough to remove any chance at the coast.

It’s always been forecast to do that. It will be back on Thursday.

The coldest air starts to leave us by then. There is quite a sharp jump up in thicknesses, 850s and 500 mbar temperatures.

The difference in temperature with height. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lapse_rate

We need to wait for lapse rates to increase this afternoon. I expect it to explode about 3 PM.

Not the worst text forecast I have heard. Today: A cold and windy day with sunny spells and frequent showers, these heavy and blustery with the risk of hail and thunder. Showers will be wintry with snow accumulating, particularly over the hills. Feeling bitterly cold with gales. Maximum temperature 4 °C. Tonight: Snow showers will continue overnight, leading to further accumulations as well as some icy stretches. Winds will stay strong with gales over coasts and hills. Minimum temperature -1 °C. Wednesday: Staying cold, with strong winds and wintry showers both easing a little through the day. Turning very windy again through the evening, with heavy rain and snow arriving overnight. Maximum temperature 6 °C. Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: Stormy early on Thursday, with rain, snow and severe gales. Thereafter, a return to sunshine and wintry showers through the rest of the week. Drier and sunnier on Saturday.

Massive upgrade on Liverpool TAF. Now going for heavy snow showers from 15:00 tomorrow with cumulonimbus and snow showers from 4 am this morning.

Wow 18Z has me down for 785 CAPE and -3 LI at 18:00 tomorrow!!! Insane for this time of year!

@carl1980 Did you hear anything then?

Really annoyed now. I could have counted that as a thunder day if I had been listening. Can’t confirm I would’ve heard it though so not counting it.