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Chris.R

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Everything posted by Chris.R

  1. Well if nothing else, I’m very interested to see how this ice pellets/freezing rain potential unfolds. Had a similar thing on 25th Jan 2013.
  2. I think freezing rain will be a problem inland towards midday. There is a substantial layer about 925 mbar which remains below freezing most of the morning even whilst The layers above it are above freezing. Once this is mixed out then anywhere left where the surface temperature is still below freezing should get freezing rain, before that ice pellets.
  3. I will be posting my thoughts about tomorrow morning after the 12Z when I get back home at about 22:00. Looking interesting, but last chance for a while.
  4. Quite heavy rain here now and Temp is falling but it’s got a long way to go.
  5. Going as expected. Heaviest precipitation should be just after midday. That is also the time when the wind is most off-shore and the freezing level is lowest.
  6. I think you’re going to do well this morning, and tomorrow.
  7. Just light rain. It was always going to start as rain here; we need to see what evaporative cooling does. Temp already falling.
  8. I reckon 150 m, dropping perhaps to sea-level in heavy precipitation.
  9. I think it is quite ambiguous. I don’t know for certain. I think it’s probably sleet though as SP says
  10. Yes. That’s what sleet is anyway, a mixture of both. :-) there is a slight ambiguity I feel sometimes.
  11. Just an observation on today: 850s are actually lower than the 10th Dec when we had slider-gate so if the surface was just a little colder there would be no marginality problems at all. If the precipitation is heavy enough today then evaporative cooling will be effective as winds are light and 850s are cold.
  12. If it has overestimated surface temperatures which it has at least for me, then it has likely done the same with the dewpoint so let’s wait and see about today. Yes, looking interesting for a spell of snow perhaps followed by ice pellets for a time on Sunday.
  13. Down to 2.5°C here now as the offshore wind kicks in. Already much lower than the Met thought it would go of course. Still looking good for in a few hours.
  14. Liverpool TAF has updated and now shows rain/snow for tomorrow morning instead of just rain so that’s good. GFS 18Z has further delayed the mixing out of the cold 850s on Sunday giving a longer window for potential snowfall.
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