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Chris.R

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Everything posted by Chris.R

  1. Chris.R
    We can get to be north of the low‘s centre then we will get an off-shore wind for a time which changes the game for us completely.
  2. Chris.R
    Just catching up with the thread, but gfs 12Z is an upgrade for thicknesses and 850s on Tuesday evening. I’m now thinking we may get to see some falling snow after all here on the coast during Tuesday night. Also an upgrade on the CAPE and LI starting tonight.
  3. Chris.R
    8:51 pm
  4. Chris.R
    Latest text forecast for tonight. Upgrade in wording again. This Evening and Tonight: A cold and windy night, with clear spells and blustery showers. The showers will fall as snow over the hills, but also to some lower levels at times, bringing a risk of icy patches in places by morning. Minimum temperature 0 °C.
  5. Chris.R
    The definitive TAFs will be the ones issued at 6 AM tomorrow covering the period until Wednesday morning.
  6. Chris.R
    Bear in mind, Liverpool only goes out to 12:00 tomorrow; Manchester to 18:00.
  7. Chris.R
    TAF update. Liverpool just rain showers and heavy rain showers. Manchester heavy rain showers until midnight; rain/snow showers until 06:00; snow showers after 06:00. Cumulonimbus only for Manchester which surprises me a bit.
  8. Chris.R
    It could do, I don’t know. I don’t have any previous analogues to go off. We did have -8 and -9 850s in Dec though.
  9. Chris.R
    Between 8.6 and 9.1.
  10. Chris.R
    This is the aspect of this set up I love. Since we allways seem to miss out in the summer, may as well make the most of anything we get now.
  11. Chris.R
    Yes it is, although only goes in 1 °F resolution so it could be anywhere between 6.4 and 6.9.
  12. Chris.R
    Yeah of course but they always issue ice ones anyway. Ice covers the coverings from hail/graupel as well.
  13. Chris.R
    There are two big problems with this set up. Realistically, the 850s just aren’t cold enough. You are going to really need -9s or -10s to have any chance of lying snow to sea-level in an o–shore wind. Secondly: the wind will be very strong throughout. This will both extend the influence of the sea many miles inland, and also mix out the air so that evaporative cooling will have little effect despite the very low dew points. Let’s wait and see though, yes.
  14. Chris.R
    Yes
  15. Chris.R
    Me too. Last few years I’ve had more lightning in winter than summer.
  16. Chris.R
    I’d say that last bit about low levels is about what has been expected all along. I think there will be larger accumulations over higher ground than they think though.
  17. Chris.R
    Yellow warning for snow and ice.
  18. Chris.R
    After around midday tomorrow rain will be very minimal indeed;? either hail, graupel or wet snow.
  19. Chris.R
    Yellow warning of wind.
  20. Chris.R
    I will post the moment I get a notification of a warning.
  21. Chris.R
    Gfs 06Z; low further south again, upgrades in the midterm as well.
  22. Chris.R
    Any minute now...any moment...surely
  23. Chris.R
    They only seem to like issuing warnings after around 10 AM... obviously after the chief forecaster has had his 1st cup of coffee.
  24. Chris.R
    Give it until 11:30 and I think there will be. Yello for snow ice and wind. Merseyside will only be in the ice warning. They will miss the coast south of the Ribble off the wind one as well. Just my instincts.
  25. Chris.R
    Gfs bit of an upgrade on Friday now with lower thicknesses and 850s with the flow lasting until Saturday morning.
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