Dave Kightley

Rain/sleet should be here in a few hours according to rain today.. I'm so jealous of Hertfordshire-Essex of the snow recently.. Just waiting for our turn again... Hopefully in the next few weeks.

Beautiful. It sounds like a hell of a lot of luck though..

Great runs from the Ukmo and ECM firming up on this signal for a little while now... Timing and the exact location of where the high ends ups yet to be decided bit you would favour the South/ East of a colder spell end of next week at least.. getting interesting again and the best part of it all.. Proper height rises this time around. CFS picked up on this signal quite nicely and if its got the right idea then may continue into March.. Anyone who says it rubbish is not always the case and then ECM is not better if wrong.

The ECM mean is ok at 240 hours. It looks like it just about to take a trip towards Greenland... Just a slower version of the op..Gfs fl and ECM later output have been hinting this for a while... It's just if and when.

216h ECM is so close to the stellar Cfs run from around the same time frame the other day..

Not much different from the Ukmo and GFS then the 00z. Further east with the high and the signal remains for the block to be heading towards Greenland for some runs now. Low pressure can easy be over done and be the high maybe further west like the 00z. Either way high pressure is still there nonetheless. Doesn't matter where it is. It where it ends up I care about and that Greenland.

Not much change this morning with GFS slight less amplified and further east with the high bang on top of us pretty much before having a go for Greenland.. Ending with a N flow with easterly not far behind i suspect. Ukmo same with high and the pattern further east then the ECM 12z but good. Only worry is all the good stuff remains in f.l but the signal is good .

Oh I missed out the fact GFS has us under colder upper air between 192-240 across south of England with the ECM a tad better..Cfs as of late been promoting Northern Blocking into March. Looking forward to how this all develops.

If it wasn't for the mild end to December and beginning of Jan it would've shown on the CET ESP December. Take away 2009/2010 and it has been a lot better in terms of cold weather for a long time. We never had Northern blocking to keep cold for more then 2 days let alone a week or more.. Great ECM btw...

216h is beautiful... As I said with the GFS any further north and we'd be looking at this great run. 240 is great...Good run tonight..

lovely 192h easterly... Not over yet.....

Slight easterly 168h. further North... Not over yet

Climate change... Back in the 60/70/80s of course but the climate has warmed up and forecasts for snow are to decline so called. Will take time but I believe next few years will bring back memory's. Part of South Wales received 1 foot of snow last month. Depending on location....

I believe we made the best out of unlucky Synoptics. Prolonged cold spell in December and January with widespread snow event and plus end of Feb maybe. Better then last winter and any of early 00s. East of England had 2 weeks of ice days and lots of snow events. Anyone who says its been poor is not looking at it correctly. could of been better but il take this winter as one of the better ones for cold spells.

On average since I've got older anyway is if we get one decent covering which lasts a week then that's been a good winter. 10 Years ago the average were last a day max. Never seen 10cm as widespread or I wouldn't of been hunting for it for so long lol. I believe there will be further chances yet....

Been better then some. I'm sure there were times we had no laying snow for a couple of Years about 10 Years ado and I note I spent nearly 10 Years for a decent fall since 96.

Wednesday looks like a drag to.. Unlucky lately.

I like the GFS output. Won't take much for that to be further north or moved towards Greenland. gives us something to work with...

your not missing out on much...lol

Radars hanging on for dear life

The heavy and prolonged stuff looks further south.. Very marginal I must say

The radar is a sinking ship... Nice to see nonetheless.

Quite heavy but not settling... Not yet anyway

If the Nae is correct then the colder air won't reach you yet so not time to panic yet.. Good luck from a poor South westerner.

ECM is a lot better at 144h then the Ukmo. Better ridging in the Atlantic. a n.w/n end of the week? Further west would be nice... Win win the cold uppers being built up in Europe if we nick a easterly at some point.