ECM mean at 72h.. Around the same as the Op.. Maybe slightly further south but not by much at all. I lie maybe slightly better.. M4/Bristol would be a good shout on how North it gets.
Id say the ppn limit on the ECM is somerset southwards. Taking the ppn at face value... Im not 100 pr cent exactly....Though if you live in Dorest,South Devon etc you'd be safe on the run. Radar watching will be interesting whatever the outcome.
GEM is also further North like the GFS for snow in the South. The Low pressure moving down from the north next week is the next thing to keep a eye on. If it clears South or South east we will be back in an Easterly again maybe (colder uppers moving back west). The models will take a few days to sort this out.
Great runs for nearly next week esp.. Time of day will depend on snow later in the week i suspect.. It snows in april for e.g. memory 1998/1999 had snow falling rush hour after early rain the South west... Just memory not fact or anything
I think going by Ian post the difference is a few days maybe as he said about snow possible for horse racing. He sounds confident on a colder spell which is fine by me..
Great runs so far for cold weather but terrible for snow.. Throughout the GFS run is dry and just unlucky.
So what we have is possible snow flurries end of the week in the south then high pressure blows up and sinks over us keeping us very cold and frosty then a chunk of the high breaks off on the western side of our balloon and then moves over west Greenland(West-NAO) and the rest sinks away towards Europe and we are back in S.Wly weather again suspect.
Gets to a point where there is just to much blocking... Never win really.
UKMO is cold and dry.
GFS further North with the high but blows the high up to a red giant. Will never be a snowy run if it doesn't take it to Greenland.. Shyyyy
it seems like we are in for a nice cold spell..Ive seen snow crop up in a short time... i dont believe the models will pick up shower activity very well.