The models have that 2011/2012 feel to them at the moment with a N.Wly very possible at times.. I'm sure this time in 2011 had a pattern not far off but far off at the same time, with high pressure to the w/s.w for long periods. Current reaction to the model output of late.. I think 2011 had cool zonality at this point, so totally different but a more of a reaction to the current model output with a N.W the best possible outcome at this present time. The ecm 12z at 240 shows to me the vortex making a slight adjustment towards the North pole.