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Dave Kightley

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Posts posted by Dave Kightley

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Or if you prefer the archived charts in Wetter format here is the link,

    http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html

    Here is the chart for the "Great Westcountry Blizzard"

    Text thanks to Mr data/weather history

    On the 18th, the next occlusion moved close to the SW and this tightened the SEly flow across the SW producing gales and blizzard conditions. By the 19th, a small low accompanied the occlusion drew in very mild air from Biscay and the huge temperature contrast between the very mild air and the very cold continental air produced copious amounts of snow. The front was expected to move right across the south but stalled over the SW. By late on the 19th, 34cm of level snow was reported at Cardiff and Exeter airports with drifts of over 8m, the greatest level snow depth was recorded at Nettlescomb, Somerset with 85cm. Enormous drifts over the moors blocked scores of roads paralysing the transport network in the SW. The worst affected areas were Somerset, Devon and Dorset, these areas had level snow depths >30cm. The counties of south Wales, Wiltshire, Avon and western Hampshire and the Isle of Wight recorded between 10-30cm of level snow. Most of the low ground of Cornwall had rain.

    Rrea00119780219.gif

    And here is the ECM 192 chart...........lol

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

    Beautiful. It sounds like a hell of a lot of luck though..

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley

    Great runs from the Ukmo and ECM firming up on this signal for a little while now... Timing and the exact location of where the high ends ups yet to be decided bit you would favour the South/ East of a colder spell end of next week at least.. getting interesting again and the best part of it all.. Proper height rises this time around.

    CFS picked up on this signal quite nicely and if its got the right idea then may continue into March.. Anyone who says it rubbish is not always the case and then ECM is not better if wrong.

    Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley

    Not much change this morning with GFS slight less amplified and further east with the high bang on top of us pretty much before having a go for Greenland.. Ending with a N flow with easterly not far behind i suspect. Ukmo same with high and the pattern further east then the ECM 12z but good.

    Only worry is all the good stuff remains in f.l but the signal is good :).

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley

    Sorry Dave I have to disagree, it has been good compared to the dross of the 90's and 00's but that is it. Still a few weeks of winter left so I wont being given up yet and hard frosts look a possibility as high pressure looks to dominate next week going on current model output.

    Climate change... Back in the 60/70/80s of course but the climate has warmed up and forecasts for snow are to decline so called. Will take time but I believe next few years will bring back memory's. Part of South Wales received 1 foot of snow last month. Depending on location....

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->

    in Regional

    Posted

    I believe we made the best out of unlucky Synoptics. Prolonged cold spell in December and January with widespread snow event and plus end of Feb maybe. Better then last winter and any of early 00s. East of England had 2 weeks of ice days and lots of snow events. Anyone who says its been poor is not looking at it correctly. could of been better but il take this winter as one of the better ones for cold spells.

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