Dave Kightley
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Posts posted by Dave Kightley
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
The warming initiates circa day 10 now...it's moving forward.
Well let's hope come the come the end of December this continues to develop plus I think our new interest may come from the west currently in the models
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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
The stratospheric fuel warning light has just come on
Not another 384h chart! There is diff a trend for some interest to our west just before Christmas though.. GFS did deliver some interest at 360 hours if only temporary as in previous runs
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UKMO isnt great either.. Time to surrender with this spell I think guys...
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Upto 92h GFS slightly further west again..
120h not sure about it.. Cold air is gone with SWly winds and big differences in Europe may mess up the run too.
Not liking this GFS at all.. so painful to watch
Very boring run.. low pressure over us for days... May pull in Nwly but as no cold air there just sums up the run really..
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1 hour ago, snowray said:
Ah them were the good old days, the forecasters looked smart and the graphics were clear and easy to follow!
The quality though reminds me a bit of some of the last BBC TV transmissions that they made just before war broke out in 1939, but come to think of it they were in black and white but in spite of the flickering were better quality than this from 1996.
Did that system end up stalling further West? I'm sure this is the time the West Country got hit as I were like 7 at the time and this was the last time in about 10 years to see a decent fall
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
FV3 12z keeping the signal going, T384:
this is going to happen. What it means in terms of weather later in our small country we can't be sure as of yet. Atlantic driven lows galore won't be on the menu, I would suggest.
384h always though....
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192h look to our west
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Way things have gone, the UKMO and ECM are quite different at 144h so its bound to change... The UKMO has more of a shallow low so banking on that one!
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144h as the low has been annoying me for days it ends upbringing Swly winds on the ECM
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I wonder if the UKMO would give a more a widespread snow event..
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Cracking GFS FL and the 500hpa charts at the end are something else too.. Pick where you want high pressure too its coming up from everywhere!
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Gfs 00z looks like cold zonality..
Well in about 400h it may pay off. 216h that same feature is still there...
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That low is ruining an opportunity... hate rain even more now!
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That low is not moving... really annoying! Just stays to the west of us ruining it!.. likely to draw up milder air from the south west until it clears... move God damn it
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The low is alot shallower on the gfs 00z upto 132h and the block is about 20 per cent bigger too
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Scandy high putting up a real battle on 12z..
We could do with some brakes being applied on these lows coming out of the States tho, they are relentless.
The models are really struggling as suspected with this.. It hard to make a forecast with whats on offer to us.. A low of 955 air pressure you would suspect is abit OTT
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192h Go under... maybe not.. Just double in size
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
168 looks better than i thought but even EC is powering up a mega low..
As long as it goes under and draw in some colder air behind then oh well... GFS keeps it hanging around near Greenland for longer
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Hmmm not bad at 168 looks like going under? Let that clar then we may get the NEly at the end behind it.. better then GFS anyway
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Navgem 00z,GFS P and Gem loving the big low at 144h with a SW to NE tilt in the Atlantic as well...UKMO the best of a nasty bunch this morning
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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I thought it looked better longer term lol..
Think im just a bit fed up of rain TBH..
Not ideal but I thought the 18z were a poorer run in terms of shunting the high away quicker so until that is sorted and track of the low, it may still tap into the cold air as it clears from the NE if ever how brief
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The 00z run is still better short to medium term with the scandi high hanging on alot longer then the 18z so until that is sorted and where this low ends up might still draw in a NEly as it clears yet!
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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
GFS looks very progressive this morning, heavy rain into the country by thursday next week..
Not what i was hoping to see after literally days and days of rain round here (monday aside).
UKMO looks a bit better at 144 but i suspect its going to go the same way.
Not a good start to the day ..
wish we could shut down the seemingly never ending conveyor belt of Atlantic lows..
Looks better then the 18z with the Scandi high further West at 192h and cold upper coming from both directions.. Need to get rid of that pesky thing though as you say..
Awesome!
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley
Interesting to see the UKMO seasonal model and the ECM mild biased seasonal model in the action! That should including Metro France previous update provide a big signal... All down to this SSW event materializing you would think..