[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

I think it should move south soon as bring patchy Precipitation until atnleast midday tomorrow

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Seems to finally be moving off north and east for us and gradually fizzling out but some models show showers from the pivot through tomorrow. Gotta say anything else would be a bonus

Still snowing lightly in Bridgwater so don't give up hope

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Temps must be above 0 as there is a very slow thaw... But will take awhile

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Quite abit of snow in Bridgwater

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I will be looking for a slight west and south movement of the low tomorrow. Must be an unavoidable warm sector within the front or the front gets to far north.. The south west and warm sectors are like best friends normally.. Hoping for a big fall out this week!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Most models are trending south but it seems challenging to keep the South west in an all snow event.. Really annoying

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

15 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many. 

Keepnit right there.. Euro4 is now my favourite model

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Here's hoping to see a massive south shift for the south west.. Nothing worse then to see snow to rain!

[January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.8c to the 26th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

Good chance of getting a below average month on the 1981-2010 scale

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, billyc said:

GFsP deepening and taking Tuesdays low slightly further North than it's 18Z last night, 

18Z

0Z

 

Don't expect you want to be in the centre of the low though.. Looks good if your north of it..

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Quite liked the 120 UKMO until the 144h chart just see that low our west ruining the chances of getting anything towards Greenland sustained

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS has Thursdays low further south.. By quite abit actually! UKMO doesn't look great for the end of the week snow wise (Southern wise) but cold air may come in for a time behind it before the next Beast of a low arrives.. No end to this pattern for at least a week

Doubt GFS would produce much Snow away from North England though an improvement by at least 50 miles South shift as a guess or more of the Low on Thursday..

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

That low will be played around with at 162h twice a day for the next 4 or 5 days... Bound to behave in between

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile the canadian mod (gem)..

Wants us batterning down the hatches..

Very wet..very windy..

And certainly out of kilter with ukmo/gfs..

Ecm track will be more than intresting this evening !!!!

Might still turn out OK as it pushes east but not ideal by any means

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The ICON not being on board really isn't good!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Must be like day 5 of this cold spell with days or weeks to go..  Could be a lot worse... Very rare you get the odd mild day.. Some places might not see double digit temps for over a week plus... Amazing!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

A lot colder this week though just if temps were a tad lower then Forecast I suspect there would be more snow around

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

12 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Ian mentioned JMA a couple of years ago as a model taken into consideration at Meto. Not a model to be dismissed, for sure.

I think ECM has this one but 2bh so much is happening within the out put from placement of the high to depth of the low to precipitation type so forgive it they are all over the place...

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Ian Fergusson on Twitter hasn't ruled out the JMA Solution or ECM depending on this low in US or omething  along thoughs lines..Finely balanced.. So yes they do take JMA into consideration it seems

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well I thought I would do a round up of the 12z runs at T144, interesting split we have this evening, the big three and icon.....

                                          VERSES....The so called lesser models.

 

ECM, GFS, UKMP, ICON

 

GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, CMA

Interesting that the lesser models all seem to still go for an easterly, maybe thats because they are indeed inferior, but it would be interesting if the got this right for a change after the likes of UKMO and ECM apparently failing miserably where they should be pretty well the strongest around the T120-T144 timeframe. As they say, it's not happened yet. 

The lesser models are showing the same thing whilst the other models are all over the place! Bound to change in the morning in both sets of outputs

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Will take that at 192h from the ECM

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Ecm is terrible at 144h

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is they are messy, as BA would say - a surfeit of clusters, still look great in graph form though.

Look pretty good to me... The control run is useless anyway..probably as useful as the ICON or that WC model

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Think most of us would to be fair. I’d hope to see westward corrections when the easterly pattern is settled on and over the years it has been well documented that gfs underplays this and corrections are made closer to time. Massive ecm though coming up..

Many in the west will be thinking what the fuss is about going by this run...Hopefully the UKMO is better 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Would like the cold air further west on the gfs...