Dave Kightley
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Posts posted by Dave Kightley
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
Infinitely better than the GFS and ICON though...it keeps the jet favourably aligned with cold uppers encroaching from the NW
Quite Underwhelming when you get an snow chance then end up with a mild sector like that.. Just our luck this winter to date
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UKMO a tad disappointing for this weekend if you want snow. To far east you would think.. 144h Everywhere but UK with cold uppers!
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UKMO looks OK but strange it updates from 92h hours and updates the 144h chart before the 24h one on Meteociel
Still updating but looks alot further east... Cold uppers are nearly gone at 120h..
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Other then GFS poor slider attempt is actually quite a cold run especially in FI with cold uppers in by Tuesday!!
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I'm not overally keen on sliders as they seem to have delivered very marginal snow events in recent times...100 per cent rather have an undercut! Would hope UKMO is correct being further west with it
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UKMO 144h has cold air feeding South.. Let someone else make a judgement about the other aspects of it..Can see that low just run over the top of the ridge on that one with it ending on us again but that is a pure guess
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15 years ago, today and tomorrow would of been classed as a cold spell with only 6c out side... It has been a chilly day! But as the big freeze has lifted our expectations, especially mine that it is no longer good enough..
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Happy new year lads and las..
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13 minutes ago, evans1892 said:
You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about.
Wouldnt believe that there has been a SSW on that GFS 00Z one.... Sometimes i think it just comes up with anything scientifically or not as it has to show something...
When it shows a cold chart then it may be on to something obviously!!
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Ukmo is good for europe but in no mans land for us... Really is getting silly now..
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With December being quite mild or very mild for some... The model output really needs to behave to get a below average winter you would think...I dont think even the Met predicted December to be so poor by predicting a below average as a reasonable possibility
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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Thankfully GFS/UKMO at odds at 144..
UKMO offers some hope moving forward, need the low to become cut off though..
GFS is well, not even worth contemplating ..
I would of thought we would be seing cold charts creeping up by now... There were strong Signals for Northern Blocking this winter and so far doing anything but do that!
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Ok nearly Snowmaggadon time again!
Upto 222h.. hmm might take a while.. though id love the cold uppers being drawn down in the Atlantic to come this way..
Thats just unfortunate...
At least any movement north or west with the high the game should be on!
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ECM is proper .... Zzzzzz What hell happened? Can't be too long before that signal comes back
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Knife age stuff to get that cold air over us by the 25th! Look at the GFS for the 24th...
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UKMO and GFS are both quite different over Scandinavia at 144h but both are quite good runs especially GFS..
That GFS
Christmas Eve looks white.northern Britain
Christmas Day looks white for many Coastal regions
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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:
It is a Xmas toppler from GFS 00z so cold on the big day but no fireworks
I'm sure that ridge would of been up there for about 2 or 3 days by that point..
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Just now, Dave Kightley said:11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
GFS 00Z will be amazing!
Not far off up to 220 hours
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11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
GFS 00Z will be amazing!
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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:
I guess with that low spinning around over us for a few days with not cold but cooler uppers not the mild ones of late some hefty thunderstorms and hail showers could crop up...
Last time I checked as still is the case, were some interest at the back end of next week but soon gets flattened!!
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GFS for next week is pretty much a wet one... Not overally mild but thoughs low pressure systems need to behave given the opportunity..
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UKMO other then a 'really' deep low at 144h isn't the worst.. Good chance we may see a ridge nudge north in the Atlantic supported by the GFS next week. Will this be sustained is up for question though far from horrible mild weather ( Wednesday 7-9c for most).. Cold zonality or a Nwly as the front finally clears is possible... Doesn't happen on this run but can't see it being long before we look west!
GFS FL showing what I were thinking for next week with a slightly less relentless Atlantic low pressures systems flattening it then will be alot better as a result..
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2 hours ago, AderynCoch said:
Not a bad start to winter here. A cold week at the end of November into the beginning of December with some snow, followed by a "meh" week and now snow again. There was hardly any autumn this year; just a summer which wouldn't end flipping straight to winter.
Good morning, where are you based? In truth we have had the blocking but really poor results from it so far unlike a lucky few like yourself which is always good to hear
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Not long now until it's Snowmageddon time! 384h does count!
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley
GFS second go at a slider is probably worse... Crap run!
could get interesting in FL though