[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Minor differences in just slightly less amplified and further east on the 00z compared to the 18z but not much in it upto 162h

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Anyone found That ECM from Jan 1963 YET?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 is a big downgrade compared to 00z 

 

Nearly completely different so who says it will not be in the morning?

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It was six years ago today since "That ECM" 

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! 

It did turn quite snowy in Jan 2013 so not all was lost

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

If you look at the upper air profile on this side of the globe on the ECM at 162h to 240h you will will wonder where all the really cold upper air went in a matter of days.. Great run for the UK but everywhere else less it seems.. Usually happens when it is the UK turn for a cold spell, the cold air goes hiding! 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Will add if you live in North East USA you will be witnessing a 30 odd degree increase in upper air temperature between 192h and 240 on the ECM! Not a good run for you ha

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

240 ECM is very nice with -8 uppers over the UK  Lovely Scandinavian High! 

[Winter 2018/19]

Gavs latest video around the seasonal models show a bias towards blocking! A lot has changed since the 25th of October in forecasting terms..

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The GFS 18z op has not been mentioned this evening!  I think I'll wait until the morning runs to look for a cold one.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

35 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Not true at all in the case of the 00z gfs. Would be plenty of interest if its FI stages verified. 

Yea mentioned it in a previous post! If UKMO would go on to follow it is the thing

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

UKMO is very stormy at 144h and  would need a few more frames to see if it would follow GFS otherwise not a great run at all for coldies except the next few days obviously 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Interesting GFS Fl with height rises over or just North if the UK and great for the USA which i suspect would be very cold! In short to medium turn with Low pressure to our West for a lot of it! Probably quite unsetted 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Just rain in Bridgwater this evening!! Worked overnight last night and can confirm it was absolutely freezing though no Precipitation sadly!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

192 hours that Low to the west really needs to get lost! Quite a deep low as well! Well the output were going so well! UKMO  looks so straight forward so banking on that!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

A lot of negativity in the posts while  the overall model output is a lot better this evening! Not overally Cold but not been shown with much conviction yet! The pattern is a lot better and should be happy if you want something colder longer term!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think most places only have a low chance of snow given the marginality. If the low parks up to the SW then anywhere south of the M4 is not ideally placed. The low more to the SE however and we are quite well placed. Such fine lines.

Story of late! Great blocking currently though without that great cold upper profile. It does feel like a missed opportunity although it is only November! I see the cold upper profile may continue to struggle though given the margin of error in the output, I would not be surprised to see it go either way still.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

11 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

We have sleet!

Where you located mate?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

I haven't looked at the model output personally but going by some posts I get the feeling the South West is the last place you want to be if you want Snow! That Low pressure is gunna cause us a nightmare I feel which looks stubborn to move..All it seems to do is lift the upper profile in our region so like last week again! Tut

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z certainly wont provide the excitement of yesterdays

Quite a difference over 24h

Let's hope it swings back the other way.

Looks keen for the P.V to get it act together! Maybe a signal but I would of thought abit quick just as the real cold uppers looked to have arrived but then pushed back to non existent! Hopefully the same with the P.V!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Another seasonal model predicts a below average winter for us! I'm beginning to get impatient over winter forecasts!

Except the ECMWF seasonal it does look quite promising! According to Ian Fergusson on twitter in reply to the Met model update, it seems an opportunity  for cold weather J in F looks a good possibility ATM too.. So if this spell does fail to deliver then the at least there are other chances!

[Winter 2018/19]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Updated JAMSTEC winter forecast for 2018/19...and they haven't backed down, still going for a colder one in NW Europe (infact just our tiny Isle and a part of Norway)

 

With only the U.K below average.. Maybe that is the P.V setting itself up over us 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look, thats the trough she's on about.

 

almost exactly as she had it - but you wouldnt rule out cold returning shortly after that would you?

 

Well not to everyone apparently! Ha I doubt that chart will be the same at 00z anyway... 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be temporary as more WAA is pumped up and by the following tuesday we could have a Greenland block and getting ready for a NE flow, dont forget a few runs recently have given out a short unsettled spell via an atlantic trough just brushing us in the middle of all the cold.

 

Maybe or I haven't got a clue so just stick anything on there might be the answer? Which given the output, don't blame them! Either way not the cleverest thing to say by the beeb

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Quite a period of below average temperatures on the way!! One of the hottest summerson record to the coldest winter would be mad! This winter mainly because of lack of expert input so far I'm not sure what is likely to happen! Usually you have an outline what to expect so waiting until more forecasts  appear

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

That is actually a pretty good mean for FI and the scatter is misleading either way.

If we get the sort of blocked synoptic GFS Op keeps throwing up then the frigid air is sure to hit us sooner or later.

It is always a game of patience getting proper cold to the UK because even if we get a good block it has to position and orientate itself to drag in those really cold 850's for it to snow here.

To be honest there isn't much between them hovering around 0 to -5 throughout which is pretty decent given the type of pattern it's up against! May have to wait for the snow away from the hills!