Dave Kightley
-
Posts
523 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Dave Kightley
-
-
4 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:
We've had light snow and snizzle since the early hours of Sunday morning here ( I'm 2 miles from the webcan location ) but absolutely nothing even remotely close to resembling a 'big storm' I'm sorry to say. I can report 4-5cms of level snow on my shed roof and patio table though. Everything falling on paths and patios melted on contact.
It were heavy, very foggy when it were lashing down and on top of the hill covered in white even on the beach a slight covering.. otherwise yes light snow just that period were good and yesterday morning it came down heavy for a hour but didn't settle
-
Hastings Has had more then New Romney for sure... on the roof it is definitely a fee
cms..looks a good spot around there
-
Hastings has a big storm about 13.00 with snow in the beach via webcam.. heavy with a few cm on hills I reckon
-
1 hour ago, Drifter said:
This is the pick of them at day 8 and 9 - the slider dumps some snow on the south
It's actually very rainy on that chart for the south as the uppers are to warm
-
ECM is OK get the Easterly but want cold uppers and that's low into the south further south otherwise not bad
-
1
-
-
Hmmm get lows further south...
-
2
-
-
Just had a heavy wet snow shower in Exeter better then the rain earlier
-
Wonder how Dartmoor looks
-
1 minute ago, dec10snow said:
Yeah must be.
Curiously, Met have updated their forecast for heavy snow at 6am. Mind you, their ‘now’ icon is a heavy snow shower so
Never got going here in Exeter..really is underwhelming
-
1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:
Has it turned wintry at all in Exeter?
Not yet.. maybe the odd flake it's hard to tell but it's rain..
shocking really
as
it very cold out
-
Just now, Paul T said:
95% chance snow within 1 hour
Probably rain near the coast. It's very marginal:/
-
3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:
Temperature?
It were way below freezing but it's quite low ground so might now help.. very marginal again
-
1
-
1
-
-
It's rain in Exeter fs
-
ECM is crap after 144.. enough said
-
3
-
1
-
-
We might even see a flake in Exeter ... frost disappeared within 10 mins as soon as snow is close ... amazing
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, swfc said:
Not really a worry just the wax and waning of the output.
Yea with the SSW even if things do go pear shaped still got more chances..when the Models get to grip with how the North Pole behaves after the SSW I doubt the models long term anywhere
near correct in that part of the world yet
-
3
-
-
The Pv seems to be gaining strength around Greenland in FI given the SSW I have my suspicions.. the fl that high pressure gets pushed around so easily.. I doubt it will look away close to how that run is
-
The way that low behaves next weekend is far from done and dusted plus even the Monday still cold out given the crap later run... I wouldn't worry yet
-
GFS from Friday goes abit iffy
-
2
-
-
Very surprised Shaftesbury and Frome had heavy rain and there both quite high up but as it's Marginal doesn't mean it will 100 per cent snow.
-
11 minutes ago, West is Best said:
The ever-present threat of high pressure rebuilding is becoming more clear in the GFS ensembles and now apparent in the ECM operational. As it's the form horse it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility.
This might be reverse psychology for my self-protection but at the moment I remain of the view that we are likely to see several days of colder conditions with perhaps a little snow to low levels for some fortunate people. Nothing substantial or seismic before settled conditions prevail ahead of the next Atlantic reload. It will make the first half of January cold.
That low might go SE and become a slider? I don't think it is a problem
-
1
-
-
UKMO has some really good uppers like a day or after the 144 chart but pretty pathetic before that really and not sure what will happen afterwards heights wise..
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, swfc said:
Not sure if this run is or ties in with a less warmer run at 10hpa. That said sits in the group bluearmy alluded to ie greenland Heighths previous
Hinting at Height rises over Scandinavia as well.. completely blocked everywhere... I think it has been hinting at sliders for a few days rather then a beast right now.. sliders with abit if heights over Scandinavia area might help keep the slide further west if that is a good thing or not I'm not sure
-
3
-
-
35 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Merry Christmas!
As someone who has been on here since 2004 there was quite some time where many of us believed a winter month like Dec 2010 wasn't possible anymore back in the late 2000s due to climate change. We hadn't had a single month below 3c CET for about 12 years, a heck of a run of above average months as well. Then we had winter of 09/10 which proved we could go cold still, and then Dec 10 proved all of us doubters back then very wrong.
The fact we got the 2nd coldest ever December in 400 years of record keeping shows that under exceptional circumstances we can still get severely cold, al lit means is the set-up just has to be that bit more perfect. Our climate hasn't warmed that drastically that we can't go extremely cold still, though of course each passing year makes any extreme cold harder to get of course.
However I agree this isn't 2010 for sure, and whilst the set-uo is promising in many ways, that contained a truly exceptional cold month for a very good reason, because it wasn't an exceptional pattern. I'm not yet seeing anything exceptional on the models, though the fact its even a remote and realistic possibility shows how much better position we are in this winter.
EDIT - the 00s (indeed since 1997!) didn't have a single month below 3C in the CET. The 10s have seen 5 (Jan,Feb,Dec 10, Mar 13 and Feb 18). Just to give you an idea how bleak the 00s were for sustained cold!
Mainly due to the fact the Winter months were Westerly dominated with hardly any Blocking! I think that trend started in the late 80s and cold spells less frequent and westerly weather being the reason for above average winter months
which I believe is in Scientific thoughts that winters will be wetter meaning more Westerly weather with Blocking on average becoming less frequent you'd think averagely.. not completely sure on that.. they say wetter average so in weather terms it must be along though lines.. the Jet maybe more active then the 60s on average.. not sure on that
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
UKMO slightly better then last night but way to Far East.. GFS upto Monday keeps things chilly away from the Far W/SW no point looking ahead of that as it's a waste of time