Dave Kightley
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Posts posted by Dave Kightley
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2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:
it'll change!
Been waiting for as long as it has been modelled to cover us... impatient I am lol Thankfully I doubt they are reliable anyway
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2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:
Its trending South every run I think Somerset/Devon could be the sweet spot on Monday. With showers anywhere in the UK as that Cheshire gap ramps up.
Hopefully. UKV Yesterday update didn't suggest rain unlike BBC forecasts recently that is a start
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28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week!
Really annoying it is Allergic to cover the South West you'd think it be in a good spot.. 3rd January great chart except for the South West.. mmm always get warm sectors if there is one.. must be a reason we attract the unattractable
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Gfs is basically in repeat with Greenland Heights never really getting going before the next slider.. cold not never gets colder through out the run.. sliders taking into account other then 850s etc with a more expert view look at it and go widespread snow but my view is it be marginal at this stage.. nothing mild anyway close on that output though
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32 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:
This doesn't look good to me!
I believe it is a slider basically a repeat of the pattern this weekend continuing.. not as good for colder but still cold way out until 6th Jan at least with snow chances still.. good but not
It's a lot different then last run.. it's Christmas Day historically a bad day for cold weather output. As it is very different, easy erodes the Greenland Heights and doesn't show what we want.. it probably is not correct you see..
I prefer undercuts rather then sliders as I live in the South West preferably but it will give snow somewhere that slider maybe a lot!! Hmm long term I can't see any mild weather for a long time at the min! Very unusual feelings towards the way the weather is heading over the next month
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Fingers crossed for a flake next week!
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fI is actually more interesting going from 382 hours to 300 hours..on the 500 height charts.. check it out before you know it is going backwards!
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That low over the Atlantic is going Nw or W direction... unusual.. not helping the block go the direction we want! The way that low has behaved I am not taking the run that seriously from the start looks funny to watch from 200h
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210 hours build of heights to the South West building north towards the Block.. I dunno if that is a good thing. Very good I hope!!!! That is nerve racking..
hmmm looks good up to 275 abit to far east maybe.. way different to 18z so no doubt will change again.
that low to the South west goes more Ne when more high pressure joins up with Greenland then North and then NWly..getting pushed around quite easily that low like a wave crashing through lol
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I dunno but I think it is better upto 195 h around Greenland though less cold uppers around in comparison.. should be happy about the first part
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The low maybe slightly further west compared to 18z and up to 171h looks better around Greenland
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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Dont read the met office contingency planning update.
Its a wash out ...
I thought it was from 2019 when I first read it.
Do you have a link? It has been a wash out for the South of late but that is what has happened not a plan
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I think we can expect a mix of rain, sleet and snow throughout next week.. very hit and miss in this set up but better then Westerly nonsense
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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
The jet stream can actually cause these hot spells by digging south in the Atlantic then heading north, leading to us being on the hot side, but I don’t believe that’s the case with this spell.
Needs the be south of the UK not over Iceland.. It is quite warm over the Poles even as why I suspect the Jet is so weak as well.. Not looking great if you hate hot weather in the future... This hot I mean
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
Heat has been building in France / Spain for a while. High pressure to our east and low to the west draws this heat over the U. K. The pattern then became fairly static, allowing the heat to remain in place.
Thank you very much, very helpful..
Jet Stream needs a kick in the ass.. Way to hot mate, it's not how the UK roles..
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Actually a general question as I don't actually know how the current hot spell is happening and why it keeps happening then can crack the problem
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Where is this heat keep coming from... Just get that Jet South of the UK..
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Video shows when REAL snow covered Yeovil 40 years ago - Somerset Live
WWW.SOMERSETLIVE.CO.UKA blizzard in 1978 caused all sorts of problems for locals and one Yeovil resident remembers it well
Found this footage of the February 1978 snow storm which I'm sure effected South Wales too..
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Video shows when REAL snow covered Yeovil 40 years ago - Somerset Live
WWW.SOMERSETLIVE.CO.UKA blizzard in 1978 caused all sorts of problems for locals and one Yeovil resident remembers it well
Anyone got any memories of this February 1978 snow storm... Looked into it and most places in South Somerset got over a foot of level snow according to met office
Would recommend watching the video as it shows Snowfall we seek endlessly
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Great when you walk up a hill and the cars coming down get snowier like on the way to Uni of Bath this morning from 30m to 200m the cars were getting whiter every 5 yards walked up it..
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BBC graphics have white showing for parts of South west on Thursday... That's good enough.. The GFS 00z doesn't look promising though..
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240 chart looks exactly like Summersun (Gavin) profile picture or a previous one. He will be happy..
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240 the high is edging West not South and that is that for the cold hunt
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27 minutes ago, mulzy said:
This is progress at day 10 (EPS) - not a dream chart but trending the right way.
Boo
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Dave Kightley
Gfs getting less keen on Greenland heights... 2 runs of downgrades by the run next week on that part.. I think a slider trend next weekend is the more probable atm