coldwinter

Fair to say the GFSP much closer to the UKMO and ECM than the GFS

New JMA weeklies seem to go the way GP was alluding to earlier, notice how solid that Euro trough is also

Met Office outlook now mentioning the 'small chance of colder temps with snow 'perhaps to lower levels for a time in north east', so there must be a little support in house for the GFSP it would seem. Good stuff

12z GFS following what GP said earlier, perhaps a little too soon as he said, but it’s definitely cottoned on

Can view the mean here https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=156

Not sure i agree with @Quicksilver1989 post above, sure cold spilling down into the eastern states can fire up the jet, but it can easily be part of a negative NAO pattern it just means the jet stream has to be amplified, plus the temperature graphic is based on the 6z GFS, which even then most certainly doesn't show anything zonal and still shows a weak and fragmented jet with intermittent ridging northwards. The key thing as Steve said is the jet to be amplified enough early doors coming off the states to pump our Greenland high up. Still lots of uncertainty!

Not a great 120 with no low heights eastern Europe to prop the high up, not ideal

No chance of this sinking as our next bout of WAA comes.Low pressure coming south through scandi the trigger

It's 53% in favour of the ECM OPS way, 47% go GFS way day 8 on. So still uncertain as to whether we can get the deep cold in.

Absolute freezer incoming. Of course with the differences early one, just for fun, but great viewing too see this incredible winter charts

Freezer incoming

Nobody watching the para GFS then, snow possible by day 10!

A very blocked 6z from the p, wouldnt surprise me if the 12z normal GFS goes backed to a more blocked regime, the overreaction on single OP runs is laughable on here, you'd think we were staring down the barrel of rampant zonality! Nobody is claiming a big freeze just yet, how can people be disappointed at heights trying to build to our NE repeatedly and further attacks on the PV is baffling to me!

Week 2 has the high centred central southern Norway, week 3 has mid Atlantic high. Would like to see a little more of an undercut on on the week 2 but we can’t grumble for the time of year!

12 GFS making some of this mornings comments look very silly indeed. Look at the angle the Atlantic is attacking at!

That was what happened in 2009. Noone is looking for a beasterly set up this early no? We want to see blocking to our north east to drive wave activity and then potentially it is there to back west later in the month. New JMA weekles support heights to the NE like the 6z. Plenty of model volatility should be expected with any building if heights over Scandinavia

That ensemble chart is 5 days old matey

Unfortunately Canadian warmings are as rare as hens teeth! Key thing for me to watch is the development of the scandi high, and fro pressure to remain high in scandi/Siberia to get some wave activity going and keeping the vortex in check.

Could i have the link for the 46 dayer? i have lost mine. Thank you.

I'd rather there was little there until October, as the more there before then means there is less scope for larger gains. Snow cover is obviously linked with the pressure patterns, that's what is worth watching as we head through October. Be interesting to see how much blocking there is over the Taymyr peninsular and the barents/kara seas through October as Mr Murr has alluded too.

Correct me if i'm wrong but the SAI correlation if for the last week of Sept at the earliest no?

It seems that the GFS has been reading from Tamara's script! Scuero ridge building ahead of an Atlantic trough. Something to watch

The clusters give context to the mean

00z