coldwinter

Christ give everyone a minute to enjoy their passion. The majority knows the caveats but this is what some of us stupid cold fans live for! Cmon....

Remember that is 850's and by the end the OP's uppers were watered down

The amount of disrespect on here for people who actually try and understand and analyse the atmosphere and how what is happening in the atmosphere at the time is going to effect the northern hemisphere going forward makes me wonder why the likes of GP bother posting on here at all.

Last year at 10hpa

Further east in FI I think he means

Looks like it has another SSW on this run too around similar time frame, a sizeable warming right at the top of the strat near the end too!

The signal on the EPS anomalies for a atlantic/Greenie high Is right at the top of the scale. if anything, its getting stronger than the last few EPS!

Interesting, the research of Wenjun Zhang however found a correlation between an eastern pacific based La nina with a negative NAO. And central based with a +VE NAO. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf

Isnt that the GFS from last night?

You don’t need to explain. I’m just not sure what adding ‘The writing is on the wall for December’ adds either.

But I thought winter was over as the incredible CFS is showing mild?

Selective memories

Not sure if its an error or not but only one cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning past day 11. Matches up fairly well with the 06z FWIW. Interesting times....

The NOAA ones looks similar to me? Or am I going blind

The Siberian high and Greenland high have been present in the extended on the ENS for days. Of course seeing the ensemble mean clusters always helps but they are extremely useful.

Very solid agreement in the extended between GEFS and ECM EPS Interesting to get such agreement in the extended. If we can get this big Siberian high and blocking to develop it would not only help with cold chances for the back end of this month, (I note the met are saying dry and below avg temps) but in the long term. Strong Siberian high--->Increased wave activity/poleward heat flux---->weakening of the polar vortex--->-VE AO--->higher chance of colder weather. All speculation for now but an interesting start to the season. Ryan.

Surprised there hasn't been more chatter about the ECM ens this morning. Very impressive ensemble mean with a strong blocking signal out to the end of the run from Scandinavia through the Taymyr region to the Aleutians, signal for troughing into Europe too. Only two clusters on the ECM ens right at the end, big signal for blocking over scandi on the biggest. Even the second has a signal for blocking to the north. Certainly, if this were to verify it would put the polar vortex under some stress, along with a possible strong Siberian high forming. I notice the 06z GFS has also cottoned on to the Siberian high theme. Would expect some decent wave activity if this comes off? Interesting times. Ryan.

Reds would show strong zonal winds. Not what we’d want to see if you like cold! Ryan.

Exactly! It makes it so magical when we actually see a few flakes off the white stuff actually falling from the sky! And I agree, some extremely knowledgeable people on here make it so much fun, I will be watching what happens very closely over the next month or two with the view of making a winter forecast. Seeing where the defined ridges and troughs set up and how the atmosphere shapes up is fascinating and crucial to any forthcoming forecast! Ryan

They are all pieces of one very big puzzle, one of which I believe we know little about. So many different factors can influence what we experience but I think we have been very unlucky in recent years with regards to cold and snow. Last year had so much promise with an extremely weak polar vortex but things didn't quite fall right. That's why a lot of us on here love the snow so much! Ryan

Its a shame the OPI didn't return, it obviously wasn't 100% but no type of prediction index ever is. It was linked in with Cohen's snow cover advance theory, the opi just gave us a number that reflected the pressure pattern across hemisphere, the pressure pattern that determines how fast the snow cover builds up! Its all linked, the OPI, taymr peninsula index and snow cover advance, basically one thing. The patterns throughout autumn set up what will happen in the following months, October is where things start to get interesting with regards to winter for me. Ryan

Showing the GFS at day 9 when the differences are at day 4 and 5 is truly laughable. We now await to see if the ECM is consistent

Something like this?

Certainly nothing mild showing on the models at the moment!