coldwinter

This one?

When does the high lat blocking start? Sometime in November? Ryan

Isnt that talking about the update from September? I believe Fergie will update us for this months run later in the week Ryan

Sunset from last night

A few old ones from me.....

Thats the control, but its still fanatstic. Here is the T240 mean, http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9285/gensnh-21-1-240_ddj1.png Ryan.

This is a great link, shows what phase the MJO has been in. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Ryan.

ECM extended ens: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html Look chilly Ryan.

Are these the ECM ones you wanted? http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london Ryan.

Could there be some intense thundery showers tommorow in the yorks/lincs area? Check the soundings as they are pretty outstanding: maybe up to >900 CAPE. Looks interesting anyway. http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtable.html Ryan.

Thanks, but its a step in the right direction for those looking for warmer weather. Ryan.

CPC 8-14 dayer looks the same as yesterdays, not overly warm but as step in the right direction for those looking for warmer weather. Ryan.

Yes, a continuation of the unsettled theme looks very likely in the forseeable but temperatures perhaps edging above average at times though, with troughing close to the UK, whether the trough can edge west and pressure can build over europe we don't know, but certainly a contination of the unsettled theme. Ryan.

Sorry my bad, but i bet it will look similar on Monday, i forget that it is generated from NAEFS at weekends. Ryan.

This is interesting, the trough moves to the west/south west of the UK, this, as mentioned by others could give a warm and potentially thundery spell, NAEFS also trending this way. Ryan

Thanks for link, that definately has the potential for some devastating consequences, its very worrying and a very real threat, an eruption is overdue and i think all eyes would be fixed on the model output if it erupted. Reagarding this weekends northerly surely we would see some snow showers down to low levels, not just low levels in the north but further down the country? Ryan.

Well it looks as though next weekend could be quite wintry, with some snow showers coming in off a cold north to north easterly, very interesting and potent for April, can't believe theres not any more chat on this. Ryan.

Latest NAE shows a definate snow risk across lincolnshire, central regions and into wales. Yeah the CPC chart does look chilly with the possibility of wintry weather from a northerly quadrant. Certainly a different month to March. Very interesting couple of days coming up. Ryan.

CPC 8-14 dayer looks chilly and unsettled. Parts of central england could see a lot of snow as the front stalls and precipitation is quite heavy. Ryan.

This should ease the drought, for once not high pressure! Ryan.

GFS looks to bring in the potential for some thunderstorms next weekend as warmer air is drawn up from Africa next weekend as the air is quite unstable. Temperatures could be upto 18 or 19C, the strength of the sun should begin to really show soon. Ryan.

Well it did turn cold at the start of february, 5 degrees below average, but yes i think it was showing blocking for pretty much the whole month not just that, but overall i think it is a very good long range tool and obviously has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Ryan.

Interesting ECM in the latter stages, could be picking up on a blocking signal as we near april, didn't some of the GFS ensembles show that in the extended range. Something to watch this. Possible pattern change early april as MJO looks to enter phase 6/7. ECM 32 dayer signals a change to colder more unsettled conditions in april, with possibily north or north east winds. Latest EC 32 continues the dry, settled and mild signal until the end of March, but with a sig pattern change early April......high pressure becomes a feature to the W of the UK and temps drop below avg, with rainfall near or above avg & potential N or NE'ly winds (Matt Hugo) Winter to return anyone? Bring it on. Ryan.

Possible pattern change early april as MJO looks to enter phase 6/7. ECM 32 dayer signals a change to colder more unsettled conditions in april, with possibily north or north east winds. Latest EC 32 continues the dry, settled and mild signal until the end of March, but with a sig pattern change early April......high pressure becomes a feature to the W of the UK and temps drop below avg, with rainfall near or above avg & potential N or NE'ly winds Winter to return anyone? Bring it on. Ryan.

The ECM doesn't look that sunny, at least to start with, i just hope that we can get a sunny high instead of this dreary grey dribble. Ryan.