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Everything posted by coldwinter
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Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012
coldwinter replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It could also be a cold easter, check the strat thread and look at GP's post. There could also be a chance of a cold shot as above post suggests. Ryan. -
Snowing quite heavy here, temp is 1.7C and falling. Ryan.
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Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012
coldwinter replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shortwave looking to go under at 144. Good old 18z. Ryan. -
In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries
coldwinter replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yeah i have been thinking that we could be in for a colder spring, certainly, if GP is correct it will probabally be quite chilly at times! Ryan. -
Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012
coldwinter replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pub run special, you could see it was going to be a better evolution as soon as that ne usa trough was more amplified. But its the 18z. Ryan. -
Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012
coldwinter replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good to see this thread without bias, yeah right, thats all i will say. Ryan. -
Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2
coldwinter replied to pottyprof's topic in Regional
Two people from boston, im just down the road in Kirton. Ryan. -
Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2
coldwinter replied to pottyprof's topic in Regional
Stated snowing here around the wash, temperature is 0.1C and dew point is -3. Ryan. -
Model Discussion Thread - January 13th
coldwinter replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Linked for trisnow. Ryan. -
Model Discussion Thread - January 13th
coldwinter replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Link to meteciel chart viewer: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 Ryan. -
In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries
coldwinter replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
An even bigger dip in mountin torque figures today, what effects could this have, surely a good sign? -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
coldwinter replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks C. Ryan.- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
- qbo
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
coldwinter replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So perhaps an SSW sooner than expected? Also how long do you think it would take the SSW to start effect the troposphere, under 2 weeks? Many thanks, Ryan.- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
- qbo
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
coldwinter replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sorry to sound naive but can someone point me towards the analougues, the ones that GP uses or are they not availabile to the general public, and how can you predict when a renewed burst of westerly winds will hit. Also any other information will be most apprieciated. Many thanks, Ryan.- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
- qbo
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
coldwinter replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ok, thanks a lot. Ryan.- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
- qbo
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012
coldwinter replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hello i hardly ever post here as my knowledge is small compared to the majority on here but i am learning all the time from forums such as this, i was just wondering could you link me to those forecasts Many thanks, Ryan.- 1,324 replies
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- stratosphere
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No but isn't he saying that the forthcoming winter would be mild IF there was anomalous warmth in september. Ryan.
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But did brian actually say that, i thought what he said is that anomalous warmth in north western europe in september causes milder winters, isn't september looking average to below average for north western europe. Ryan.
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Thanks,
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Isn't west based bad for our cold winter prospects, i thought west based indicates a more positive AO, but i am not sure. And i expect that the CFS is overdoing the la nina as other sites suggest much weaker conditions Quote from paul hudsons blog, During periods of low solar activity (few or no sunspots) an easterly QBO causes a negative AO, but a westerly QBO causes a positive AO. But now we have quite a few sunspots, 97 infact would this change the effect? Thanks.
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It made me laugh how in his forecast he said the la nina strengthing the jet stream is a GOOD thing because he was expecting easterlies. Im no meteoroligist and im not saying his forecast is wrong but hasn't he issued that same forecast for years and only December was the exeptional month not the rest of winter.
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LOL LOL anyway back to the topic, didn't the CFS pick up on the blocking for november/december this time last year, but now the ECM is apparently predicting the winter will be all over by the new year again, but i've heard it didn't pick up the nov/dec cold spell very well at all, any thoughts? Thanks, Ryan.
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Hello, i personally think the cold will come as early as last year, and at the moment it is looking at a dryer autumn and possibly very dry november, with strong blocking throughout winter. Ryan.
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Epic post!
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What does everyone think of the latest SST's for a negative or postive NAO. Thanks.