[Moans, ramps and banter]

14 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is ramping up an unprecedented extreme jet stream developing toward the tail end of next week. Due to extreme temperature gradients and other global anomalies. This is what the models are now factoring in and …I’m afraid it leads to a raging PV and a prolonged zonal setup. Looking to March now ! 

March? He's either got a crystal ball or he's half mystic Meg and half nostrodamous!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I of course want ukmo to be correct this morning but more importantly - I do actually think it will be. I haven't been impressed with the performance of the ecm ops these last few weeks. They have been erratic to say the least. I will be closely following the ukmo output over the next couple of days as we close in on the cold spell. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

This must be what Tamara has mentioned quite a few times now - anticyclonic and unsettled in her neck of the woods. Southerly tracking systems into south west Europe. 

This post from last night is even more pertinent after the morning runs. Ukmo and gem show the Iberian low heights, unlike the ecm for example. If you want prolongation of the cold (or at least a very small relaxation of the cold) then we need to see an increase in a trend to lower heights over south west Europe. We need to see gfs and ecm move more towards this trend through today. This is what I will be looking for in the models today. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This must be what Tamara has mentioned quite a few times now - anticyclonic and unsettled in her neck of the woods. Southerly tracking systems into south west Europe. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I know it's the fabled pub run but imagine this forum if these upgrades at relatively short timescales continue in the morning.... Phwooaaahoorrhhhhh!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I always think of 1988 being the start of many an awful winter over the proceeding 30 odd years. So I picked 3 charts from this time in January for 1988,1989 and 1990. Then I looked at the latest charts for this upcoming cold spell. Many to choose from of course but I just went with the latest Icon run. This post is a reminder to everyone of what we have USUALLY had to endure just about every January of the last 30 plus years. The charts we are witnessing and marvelling at over the next week or so are incredibly special. Let's savour it and enjoy what I hope will be multiple spoils for most. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

24 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The Asian models have got the killer charts tonight:

High time they get something right for once

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Can't post the charts right now but JMA shows the best possible cold solution and is Baltic. Unfortunately it's on its own again which means it will be barking up the wrong tree. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .

Yep. Also, the trend of today's latest model offerings is a 'straightening' of the northerly in the 5 to 6 day timeframe. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

It appears many lose there heads on here at least once a day with the det runs especially.

It must be bloody murder for your partners when your not liking a particular run.

What I'm not convinced about is the ens that show a very strong pv later this month,its currently in very weakened state with some evidence of further pressure being placed upon it very soon 

I read an interesting article from Amy Butler regarding the recent ssw that didn't really split and reverse and it appears they seem unsure as to why it went wrong! Also points out the fact it stays weak for another couple of weeks with the scope for it to become hit again further down the line.

I will include a screenshot of the tweet so you can direct yourself for the full read up.

Ecm ens do show a fair amount of cold runs out to the 21st of the month..but tonight it again looks like the usual wobbles from the dets especially....wouldn't at all be suprised to see yet another gee sterling runs tomorrow.

Don't lose sleep over it folks..we will be rolling again.

This should lift the spirits...strong pv my backside

That's interesting about Amy Butler mate. It really was a last minute climbdown on that SSW. If she is scratching her head then we really are in trouble lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Anyway.... The cold is here NOW! It actually 'felt' like January outside today. And no, I'm not talking about the January's of the last 25 years. It was like the January's of old. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It’s actually a deceptively cold run (but boring). 

Not a single front crosses the country - and after enough time I think a Scandi High would appear. 

The sort of run that would test the patience of a saint?

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Control 18z is an upgrade on its frankly woeful 12z

mean looks very similar to 12z 

Both 156hrs..

I notice (I think) nobody mentioned that awful Gfs 12z control run in the relatively early timeframe of 5 to 6 days out. I just hope that run will be a dim and distant memory in 8 hours time and not a harbinger of what is actually to come. 

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Control 18z v 12z

168

Not control runs lol. We've all done it though  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m not quite sure where they would get much of an idea about this year’s evolution from the data that they have been trained on.

True. The word 'infancy' springs to mind. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

While I’ve been typing that last post, what on earth has the pub run been up to - it’s horrible!

I still don't understand why people give it the time of day. Stick to the 00z & 12z runs. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Last night was a great one. I think it's all trending towards what the UKMO texted forecast has indicated as battle ground conditions. From an imby perspective that rarely  works out for my location, but for others, especially those further north and east in the UK, it could well work out nicely for them!

From today's trends I can't pick fault with your analysis there. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Hotspur62 said:

On this run GH disappears rapidly,artic heights have gone all seems different to recent runs? Could it be an outlier?

Pub run tends to be 'different'. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Tomorrow morning's runs will be crucial....... 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I seem to remember something like this happening years ago with an Azores low and I'm sure it coincided with Stuart Rampling's famous 'torpedo' post. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Also on the ecm run..we maintained some fairly decent heights into greenland

Which contributed to the run being saved from calamity 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just when we thought we were going to be able to start to relax, the azores low decides to speed up it's west to east journey. We really don't want to see that trend pick up in intensity. The models will struggle with that low as well as the arctic profile so there really could be some squeeky bum time in this forum over the next 48 hours or so. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I think that Azores low is going to make us coldies sweat for a few more runs yet!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

May as well add to the good trend of today with the latest mogreps. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH EC det looks weird days 9 + 10 ..

It's upgraded days 5 to 8 so that is a big positive for me ..

Days 9 and 10 look good - If it's snow you are looking for shortly afterwards. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I really don't see any reason for any dispondency with regards to the model output this morning. Looks chuffing fantastic to me. I'm very excited about the rest of January now.