blizzard81

January 6

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Your photo doesn't betray it!

Cheers for the compliment mate. June 2022 so I was 48 when it was taken.

January 6

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Happy birthday! Bet you have cheeky peek on your phone between 6.30 and 7 to see our views on ecm

It will be ever so tempting

January 6

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

You're 50?!

Yep, 50 years young though huh?

January 6

Just a quick one from me before I go out on the lash for my 50th. It's still a few days away but it has to be done on the Saturday before lol . Fantastic output on the 12z runs. This is getting really exciting now...... Ecm will come to it's senses I'm sure . Keep those new year's wishes of love and peace for everybody in your hearts. It really is a messed up world and it needs that more than ever at the moment ❤❤

January 6

Improvement in the Greenland area on the latest 06z ecm control run compared to the 00z run. Looks like it would lead to a much smoother transition to cold thereafter.

January 6

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh ive noticed in recent years it seems to struggle to get little minor details correct 2 or 3 days out!!!i remember few years ago there was a shortwave running across midlands!!gfs was adament it was gona be further north with a deeper low and ecm continued its southward progression!!in the end though at just 54 hours out the ecm changed to a much deeper low and went through the north mids instead and moved to gfs!!!!yet the rest of the run was fine and got most of the details correct thereafter!!

I also once read that ukmo was much better than ecm at the 2 to 3 day range and that ecm isn't so great at very short range.

January 6

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It warms the cockles

I knew it wouldn't look so pretty. If I remember correctly though, a few days ago, the EC46 showed a temporary relaxing of the cold during week commencing 22nd Jan. Key word there being 'temporary'.

January 6

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It’s a slightly daft tweet because it is referencing 850s. Without doubt models are useless at getting 850s right at anything like medium range. You’ll never see me mention them. Synoptic shape is all important, but I’ve seen near identical synoptics upgrade a flow predicted to be 0 at 120h to something colder than -4 by 48 hours. Given the fine lines required for snow I don’t see the point worrying about 850s until we get to the 48hour point.

The only EPS that matters is this one….and it is rock solid still out to 240h.

Would you be kind enough to post the 360hr chart please?

January 6

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes. He has tweeted that EPS are trending milder.

Thanks Catacol. Well we can all see that so he's stating the obvious I suppose. Crucial question is - are they correct? Time as ever will tell.

January 6

Some much colder runs cropping up at days 6 to 7 on the 06z mogreps when compared to the 00z run.

January 6

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Ha - you being distracted by Brian’s gloomy tweet? Keep the faith. Either we commit to the general shape of a GWO-sourced forecast in the context of a stressed and weakened vortex or we don’t. ECM op overnight struck me as struggling in the extreme with the unusually disrupted pattern.

Who is Brian? The Brian on TWO?

January 6

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history!

Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana?

Yep, it's a fair point about ecm all those years ago. Gfs et all are also guilty of this from time to time - jumping off then back on the wagon. I think it resonates more though when the ecm does this as there is generally more respect for that model. Modelling over the next 72 hours will be critical.

January 5

I never like to see a sudden and rapid amplification and raising of heights ridging up from Akaska. It always seems to coincide with a pressure fall over Greenland shortly afterwards. Not the trend we wanted to see and it's seemingly come from nowhere. Not being a negative nelly. Things are going in the right direction for cold in the short to medium term. After a torid few weeks of wild, wet and stormy weather, would it be too much to ask for a bit of winter in January? Lol.

January 4

1 minute ago, Day_9 said:

There is a massive difference between a single run (or even a single pert in a single run) showing narnia- like charts and actual verification - especially at 2 weeks out.

If it can go wrong, then it probably will. It doesn’t take much for 3 days worth of bubbles to burst.

we are thankfully going colder and more importantly, drier. It has done nothing but rain since June. i want to be able to get out in the fresh air. It has been a thoroughly depressing period. I don’t necessarily want to be penned in by ice days either. A bit of snow would be lovely for the kids for a week or so but the actual chances ???? Maybe we are overdue a big one, but an awful lot has to come together for it to happen.

enjoy the charts, there are some absolute amazing synoptics at the moment.

A very good, grounded and well balanced post.

January 4

I think we should wait for the morning runs, they will be cruc....ooops! Sorry

January 4

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS and EC mean are epic at day 10, until they start getting worse I don’t think we need to be concerned - a few more days of this then we are hit semi reliable - and it’s then that the METO would start ramping - if we are still looking as good as we are today.

So countdown from 14th Jan. Ooops.... Sorry @Scot Ingham

January 4

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Not really, you can see main player which is what we want too see consistent at this stage is the ridge into Greenland(which going by those charts is more pronounced than previous runs). Everything else is less relevant at this stage.

Read my post again lol

January 4

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So the ECM has a day 10 chart where Greenland heights have just established yet seem to be on the move West 24 hours later. On the other hand uppers are moving South but even at day 10 they are not cold enough for snow. But wait its dry anyway so we needn't worry about any of that lol

Folks I thought the ecm was showing a stunner of a 240hrs chart 2 days ago. Shouldn't that now be moving to 192 hrs rather than staying at 240?

Sorry but I'm not convinced about long term cold. The Met have it spot on, cold and dry...

You do have a point tbh. Not

January 3

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Yeh Mike if I recall my first taste of proper winter was as a 7 year old in the 81/82 big freeze..there was never really any talk of background drivers then like we discuss now. A weather presenter would simply say high pressure is building over scandy which in turn will be dragging very cold air in from siberia..and I recall some real bruiser of heights around the scandy region back then. Countryfile forecast is about all we had to go on.(granted it was good as they were all met office trained and gr8 presenters) but like you say there was no way of us talking up or down the situation on social media like these days..we simply waited for it to come off,where as these days we simply wait for it to go wrong.

Nearly 8 years old and waist deep in snow is when I got the buzz for it..I started drawing weather charts using an old atlas map,and putting all the symbols and isobars on...absolutely loved it...even run up a 200 phone bill as a 10 year old phoning around the UK for updates and weekly forecasts for different areas.. parents nearly killed me

And at long last we are seeing some sublime output and I kinda have that 80s feeling all over again. Sorry for going off on one mods I'm having a nostalgic feeling looking back on those days..

Let's reel this in folks...and thanks for the commentary...its a complete blast.

Same age as you mate and Dec 81 as a 'nearly' 8 year old was something I will never forget and I can't believe it....... I did exactly the same as you with the weather phonelines behind parents back . The trouble I got into too but it's all we had apart from ceefax . I started about 10 years old when they got their first phone line installed. Absolutely uncanny! Absolute class your post. Made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up

January 3

Amazingly good continuity now from the ecm suite.

January 2

Just now, damianslaw said:

Agree with that, whilst not especially cold,uppers of 0 to -5 degrees under a slack airstream and a high direct over the UK with no atlantic feed in early-mid Jan will be cold. The minimal solar heating will help to hold temps down.

Hence Exeter repeatedly forecasting moderate to severe frosts on their last few updates.

January 2

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

Lol.... It's a start. Most Januaries over the last 20 plus years can't even deliver this. Add to that the massive potential going forwards with the ever growing and irresistible trend of retrogression to Greenland.

January 2

All roads leading to Rome? The morning runs might make this forum a very busy place indeed.

January 2

Coupled with ensembles and means across most suites, this is becoming more and more likely now.

January 2

PATIENCE.....

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