[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Perhaps focus on looking for any potential snowy surprises cropping up this week and then come back to the medium/longer range models next week?

Very wise words mate. I certainly wouldn't rule out the odd surprise but if not then so what? It felt proper bitter out there today and is a welcome change to the miserable, gloomy atlantic muck we have had to endure. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

There's only one silver lining about the model outlook today - It surely gives most on here the chance to have a break and recharge the batteries. At least a few days off. Maybe a week. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Cmon BA. Hurry up..... I'm cooking buffet food and I'm at risk of burning it awaiting your post

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

21 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where did the shuffling heights go?

They've shuffled off to their usual location over southern Europe. Trouble is... Once they locate there, no shuffling will be in evidence - they will stick there like glue!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

It's just got to be said I'm afraid - you just can't possibly sugar coat the output today. It's awful. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hmmm - that is a good question. Ultimately it will be to the NW - but there is going to be a transitionary phase that might well feature a block to the NNE first. At the moment - and the reason I have been quiet for a couple of days - is that we have nailed on 5 days of cold and then the arrival of a couple of factors that I have no confidence in the modelling’s ability to manage in any great detail and so I’d rather sit and watch and be fascinated.

In the first place we have a bottom up short term vortex split that is going to end quickly and allow the vortex to reform as a whole once again, but quite how that happens and the extent to which frictional responses to this are going to impact the tropospheric pattern is very unclear.

Secondly we have a solidly Nino-esque atmosphere that is sitting in a positive momentum position even as we reach the end of the inevitable ping back from the steep rise in late December, and that means (as has been stated better by others) that our baseline is already predisposed to blocking. So…when NWP wakes up to the rising momentum picture signalled by my FT screenshot earlier and enhanced soon by an imminent +EAMT and a very favourable MJO we end up with the Glosea Feb chart.

The Hannibal Smith pic from a few posts back holds true still. There is nothing happening that is especially unexpected. I am quietly gutted that we did not get the forecast SSW earlier in January because I think if that had happened we would have been looking at wall to wall cold blocking for the extended, but right now the steering wheel is being grasped by tropospheric forcings that are well expressed in the GSDM…and it is a great watch. Whatever falls from the sky this week will not be winter’s final hurrah.

Going back to your question - I can see NWP playing around with a more downstream wave break setting up over Scandy in the first place, so I’ll plump for a U.K./Scandy ridge first and then retrogression to Greenland. To be honest this is hardly an original view point - EC weeklies have been flagging that progression for a while.

Another fab post there. I really enjoy reading your posts. It also looks like the cfs is singing from the same hymn sheet. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Don said:

It's definitely one of the better models and one I do respect too!

Let's see if we can eek out some more ridging on the morning runs at T120 and beyond. Tall ask maybe but you never know. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Remember, the ICON was the only model never really onboard for the failed Christmas 2021 cold spell.  May mean something this time, may not? 

I always have respect for this model mate. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

I suppose it's possible that it's taking GFS place re the pub run, but let's hope not, I'm intrigued what the 0z might show in the morning. 

You're thinking exactly the same as me. Isn't the icon supposed to be up there though in the 5 day range? I trust it more than the gfs pub run. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Wow, seriously, how about letting this cold spell play out, and I'm not so sure about the warm up, icon might be showing the way, we will see later in the week. I'm not looking for the next spell just yet.

The 18z Icon really does set the cat amongst the pigeons. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I think we hit rock bottom last night and this morning but we've come a long way since then in the 5 day timeframe. Icon certainly thinks so. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, sundog said:

It does seem the cold in the US gets cut off just as quickly as ours which is one good thing. 

I noticed that too. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing though. It would suggest increased mobility and zonal flow and less amplification which isn't good. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This isn't your usual cold to mild breakdown in terms of cold 850's getting swept away. Still cold at 168hrs on ukmo and the very cold seemingly going nowhere to our immediate east and north east. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The models may have over estimated the speed and power of the polar jet and under estimated amplification in our vicinity in a week's time. Fascinating to see the other 12z runs shortly to see if we see more signs of what the icon has just thrown out. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

On the back of that much improved ecm 06z control, this is a massive improvement on the latest run at day 5. Look at that difference compared to the 00z run. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If (it's a big if) we could get enough amplification/ridging next weekend before the PV bomb traverses the atlantic, it would be natural to assume that this lobe would start to track on a more southerly trajectory and also weaken. Hope springs eternal. Because this is still 6 days away, there is certainly time for favourable upgrades over the next couple of days. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Had a quick browse of the ensembles, and a few are hinting at height rises into scandi,

Probably will get bulldozed away by the energy to the northwest later on, but maybe something to lookout for in future runs 

I feel the next chase brewing already lol

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Much better on the latest ecm 06z control run. The monster lobe that comes off Canada looks more curtailed and there is decent amplification in our vicinity. Compare the new chart to the 00z one. I think this is what Tamara is telling us to look out for. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

It will be interesting to see if the much anticipated 'back loaded' winter still comes to pass now. I haven't lost all hopes but seeing the latest charts for next weekend has certainly caused a dent in them. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh no, not the dreaded solar flares! 

February 'could' be the main course this winter, despite the EC46 appearing to put proper cold potential back a bit tonight.  However, a number of long range models (even the CFSv2!) are looking blocked for February.  The long rangers in the run up to winter also settled for a 'back ended' season too, inline with an El Nino winter.

I daren't look at the solar flares . What will be will be lol. Yep, you're right about the back loaded winter with the seasonals. Just don't like that week commencing 29th Jan downgrade on the EC46 today..... Slippery slope potentially. Still hopeful though and a nice bracing cold week ahead for us all - it will actually feel like January for a change

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

You know how it is! 

Anyway, you have until end of Sunday for the outlook to improve!  

Might have to go check out the solar flare activity lol. End of Sunday.... Nah! The writing is well and truly on the wall now my friend. I could be wrong of course. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I have a break from this thread and decide to come back at the wrong time!!  Now, who do I blame?! 

You!!    

. I would have been offended if you said anybody else Don

 

2 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

How about an

Option 4

Just wait and see what actually happens

And not worry about model output

And get out and about and live your lives

Don't be daft!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

GFS spotted it again the trend finder model

You're right. Very underestimated and makes fools of most on here, even the most respected. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If I was to sum things up after today's offerings by the models - The vast majority of coldies are wanting something more than a dry, frosty week. Mainly because of the uneventful (for most) winter so far, on top of the uneventful winters of the last 10 years plus. That's it in a nutshell. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Jono E said:

I’m just passing on information that’s coming out of Boston. It is model related. I’m a coldie myself, I think March will deliver. 

Cheshire Freeze will agree. March doesn't cut it for me personally. Would rather have some very early warmth.