blizzard81

The gfs parallel now agrees with the ecm Atlantic spoiler low approaching Ireland. It didn't agree with it at all on the 00z run.

If I may Isn't looking great to me.

The last few ecm op runs have taken the main chunk of the pv to the Canadian side. Not good for us. Especially when the Siberian high is acting like a hermit.

Well, it's not called the pub run for nothing.

And therein lies the problem for the UK in a nutshell. You can rely on a ridge to our south at day 9/10 but certainly not a ridge to the north of us at the same timeframe

Indeed - it's called the law of sod. Did you read my post at all?

Trust gfs at your peril in situations like this.

A front loaded winter was much vaunted up until as recently as a week ago. However, during the last week some factors have come into play which have helped to cast doubt on this possibility. The ec46 is one of those factors along with the wqbo/low solar activity combo amongst others. I was perplexed about the consistency of the 'getting colder' meto extended but this was the only thing that kept my hopes up for Dec. Even that has now gone by the wayside. Of course things can and indeed may reverse back to coldie fortunes. However, we have to be realists here. When things flip from cold towards mild and unsettled it is very rare for this to reverse back to cold. We all know that.

My comments are based on the model output in general including the means. Ecm and gfs day 9 means look hardly inspiring to me.

Indeed. It showed some promise earlier on but the later frames leave a lot to be desired.

Ok I've seen much worse charts but the uk is not in a great position there to be honest. Atlantic still ruling the roost going forward.

And there you go. Atlantic spoiler pumping up the iberian heights. Ecm is very good at picking out such features. Let's hope it's got this one wrong.

Got a feeling that low that has sprung up in the central Atlantic will be more foe than friend going forward.

Much better output tonight so far. Look at the difference between these two ecm charts for the 1st Dec. The first from Saturday's 12z at t168 and the second from tonight's 12z at t120. A vast improvement there for us coldies going forward.

Indeed. I think this may have been what Chris Fawkes was referring to this weekend with his tweets.

These are hardly screaming cold potential to me.

The latest update says the settled, blocking period will not last and be replaced by unsettled weather again as we approach xmas with temps trending up - oh joy! This could be the 8th consecutive meh! December on the trot. Pretty grim statistic really.

I fear we are on a bit of a merry dance here again - like the last 6 or 7 winters. Cold potential being put back a couple of weeks at a time. Mid December becomes late December, becomes mid January and so on. Just my gut feeling at the moment.

I've long since given up being bitter about this. The fact is the central /eastern US very often get cold /very cold winters whether the UK experiences them or not. All simply down to location I'm afraid.

I am keeping an open mind about December's prospects. I really am 50/50 with regards to how next month turns out. I am going to wait another week before I can try to dicepher what is in store for the UK in the next few weeks. .

The high settling over the UK are my thoughts too. That would be nice as we approach mid December. Like you say - thereafter! Who knows?

I do often think the same myself

Is this the eddy coming up from France that GP made reference to yesterday at the 9/10 day timeframe?

So what's the point in looking at them? lol

Incredible consistency between the gfs 12z and 18z. Hardly any difference at all by day 8.