blizzard81

The updated fax chart for Friday shows the block to be stronger and the fronts struggling more when compared to this morning's chart for the same time.

That ecm run would give quite a dumping to the northern spine of the UK - whether the ecm snow charts show it or not.

Fab update - lower ground Also the drier theme for week commencing 17th Dec when compared to previous updates.

Mmm. Is that the only cluster that shows the strong heights to the north east?

Sounds positive Any chance of posting the clusters you refer to.

Not sure if the mogreps going cold is for the end of this week or in the extended?

I had to do a double take on that ecm op this morning - very encouraging! Add to this the positive news about mogreps going cold I think we can look forward to seeing upgrades on tonight's 12z runs - all being well!

No, the opposite imo.

Based on the past met office sst theory you would take those Dec 18 sst anomalies all day long if wishing for a cold UK winter.

Forgive me if I am being a little dim but please elaborate.

As Matt Stoke has just inferred, if the sst theory is put to the test, then it explains why our winter went off the rails after Dec 10. However, if anything there looks to be a lesser temp gradient this month off the eastern us seaboard so you would expect less cyclogenesis. Again this takes me back to the beginning of this debate - solar influences!

Certainly many variables at play which makes meteorology so fascinating. With regards to sst's in the Atlantic and it's affect on the nao, the met office used this as one of their main driver's for UK winter weather forecasts for many years - sst's off the eastern seaboard of US in May corresponding to those during the following winter. The met office then abruptly changed this method of forecasting about 8 to 10 years ago due to little evidence of this theory having any bearing on UK winter patterns at all.

All much of a muchness though it has to be said.

Many years of reading on the subject and my own observations on such matters. I remember making a post on this forum many years ago on this subject and another member suddenly turned all keyboard warrior and tried (but failed) to trash my comments. He or she failed because in more recent years most of the professionals now agree on the link between solar minimum and cold winter's in western Europe. We are approaching solar minimum but the difference this time round is the gaping coronal hole in the sun which is spewing out immense energy akin to what happens during higher solar activity. I believe from many articles I have read that this adds incredible energy and mobility to earth's weather circulations.

You were direct with your reply there and each to their own. Now allow me to be just as direct when I say that I totally disagree with your assumptions on this subject.

You tell me lol

Been reading about this recently. Am I right in saying that this massive hole which is causing monthly geomagnetic storms at the pole is having the same affect as solar flares? If so, this cannot be a great sign for cold winter chances as the jet will be fired up.

The PV has turned into an alien.

It really does feel like the models have been teasing and toying with our emotions these last few days. Nevermind, onto the next battle. Chins up - the winter is young.

The fax charts tonight will be enlightening to say the least.

This is something that happened quite often back in the 80's. The Atlantic front made inroads into the spine of the country only to be pushed back by the scandi high. I haven't seen that happen for donkey's years. Well overdue

The obligatory Xmas warm up lol.

Things look to turn a slow moving and quite banal later on the ecm run. That sturdy high pressure on the eastern seaboard of the US gives me some hope. Looking at the later frames of that run and I cannot see a return to mild dross anytime soon. In fact you could bet on quite a cold run up to and probably including Christmas based on this.

No comments because it cements the failed easterly. Atlantic 1, amplification nil. Onto the next round.

All I will say to that is can anybody remember Xmas 2005? Here are the charts to jog your memories. Very similar to the upcoming evolution. Well, the met office were calling a mild and wet Xmas up to just a few days before this. Food for thought.