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Everything posted by blizzard81
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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The burning question is why more Nina than Nino? I wonder if anybody has any theories on this? -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It is an upgrade in the 4 to 6 day timeframe and that's all that counts. The GFS 18z doesn't have a clue post day 7 at the best of times and believe me, these are not the best of times for weather models -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
See the upgrades? Compare and contrast. There are so many examples I could use today. Trying my best to get the message across for all you cold lovers -
See my reply to ArHu3
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You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy
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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This morning's ecm control was an undercut. Tonight's gfs para was an undercut. Mmmm! -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Wedge to the north sounds interesting. Maybe like gfs para run. Would be nice to see some convergence between ecm and the para. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The trends have been great today. Yesterday's ecm day 10 mean compared to today's day 9. Very nice upgrade. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes, day 10 looks good. However as ever, I'm not too fussed about day 10 charts. This really is one of those situations where the upgrades could really stack up in the 4 to 6 day timeframe over the next 48 hours. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And the ecm goes confused.com at day 9. No worries from me though. Don't go beyond day 5 at the moment. Anyone who can't see the short term upgrades today need to go to specsavers. Most of the best cold spells are born out of upgrades at very short notice. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Time for the gfs para to prove itself - and what better way to do that with a chart like this at 168hrs. I am hoping to see similar on tonight's ecm -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Frigid easterlies nearly always have those angry lobes to our north west. Have a look in the archives at previous classic easterlies and you will see what I mean. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
To all those sceptical of how much things can change for the better in the 6 day timeframe, look at yesterday's 156hr gfs para and compare to this evening's 132hr chart -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Right. It would be fair to suggest the ukmo to be a rogue run as the icon and gfs have upgraded. A crucial ecm tonight. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A downgrade from ukmo unfortunately. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
See my post at the top of this page. Now just imagine if the amplification upgraded to a similar extent by tomorrow's 12z run. It would be game on imo. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We just need that little extra push of amplification north eastwards. The ecm and ukmo are leading the way here. Tonight's runs will be fascinating! -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Here's hoping sir -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Uncertainty is a good sign in situations like this. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cmon northwest. Keep holding that nerve! A broken clock - remember? -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Wow! Now that is interesting Wasn't sure if it was just cold anticyclonic. Let's keep the faith. Much needed good news for us cold chasers. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It certainly would. Not long to find out now -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ah, ok lol. Well, I can look at debilt which everyone has access to.I'm sure you have seen them. Control looks like it could be interesting.