blizzard81

Indeed. I have seen much worse charts for mid December.

Cheers. I will take your word for it with regards to Stewart's thoughts. They can sometimes be a little cryptic. That is not a criticism by the way before anyone comments lol. More like me maybe not understanding the ins and outs of what he is portraying.

You and GP seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet this season. He also warned people not to get fooled into believing the Scandi high would give up so easily. The problem I have is that the gfs 06z suite tends to be the most amplified out of all the runs so the improvement was to be expected to be honest. The 12z runs will be very revealing tonight. I wonder if GP still feels the Scandi high will be more resolute than the output is showing?

This easterly was never progged to be of the convective snow machine type. Most would have seen a couple of flakes at most. The only chance was for an undercut. For this reason I am not too bad fussed about any easterly fail. The only thing that bugs me though is that all the classic winters showed great propensity and appetite for retrogressing scandi highs, even early in the season. This one looks like rolling over like a b***c to the Atlantic. Not a great sign for the rest of the winter.

I was referring more to the amplification of the ridge through the uk - now modelled to be weaker. And getting weaker with every run.

Anyway. My attention is already moving on (next chase lol). I mentioned last night about looking west. That looks very promising down the line.

The problem we have here is two fold. Firstly, the initial ridge north is getting weaker with each run. This is now in the 4 day timeframe so not much time for improvements on that front. Secondly, the Atlantic is getting more energetic with each run.

In a word - cruel.

Looks like we are staring at another downgrade at fairly short notice here. Even the ecm looks to be backing down on the strength of the ridge up to scandi. Sometimes the models underestimate the energy in the Atlantic. Looks like this could be one of those occasions. Compare yesterday's ecm 144 to today's 120.

You sir are a genius

Me! Lol

I feel the ecm op tonight would have looked very similar to this at t288.

Brave call

That is the funniest post I have ever read on this forum. Keep them coming Tight. You must be some character

Right at the crucial point as well. The gfsp froze at 114 yesterday. Let's hope we are frozen this time next week.

The 12z ecm day 10 mean looks far better than the 00z mean from this morning. Far more amplified and ridgy!

Ecm still sticking to it's more amplified guns in the mid term before agreeing with the other models on a return of the Atlantic. Very much along the lines of the meto updates. It is incredibly rare to get an extended cold spell in the UK during December, even during the classic winters. Any cold incursions tend to be transient in nature as it is just too early in the season. I'm sure I am not alone when I cast my eye to the end of December as there seems to be something brewing Some on here are miffed about the ecm at day 10. All I will say is look west - that is a very impressive high pressure cell being pumped up towards Western Greenland. I think it looks like a fantastic chart going forward. I said earlier in my post about transient cold spells. I should correct that - I actually feel that it will be the mild spells that will be transient in nature. I think cold will be the dominant player. I leave you with the ecm day 10 chart. Not so bad is it? Look west

I must admit I am a little disappointed with the output today. The clear trend through today on the gfs at least is for the Atlantic to break through far earlier than anyone of us would like. Indeed, the easterly doesn't even set in at all really. The exception to this is the last couple of ecm ops. We really do need to see the ecm hold firm on the easterly tonight, otherwise I feel this will be a very short lived affair indeed - much shorter lived than the last couple of ecm op runs would have you believe.

120hr fax for Sunday

You didn't seriously think the pub run would let us down did you?

Much much better compared to the 12z at the same time.

Absolutely. Would rather have it that way round as opposed to the the other way which is what we have become accustomed to over the last few years.

There is time for that sort of amendment to happen.

Let's just pretend week 4 isn't there lol.

Indeed