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blizzard81

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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. blizzard81
    I know what you mean but the upgrade chart is at day 3.
  2. blizzard81
    It also shows how the ecm totally overestimated heights to our south at day 5. I am assuming it will be more or less spot on at t72. Now look at today's day 5 chart. Is it doing the same thing again?
  3. blizzard81
    Short term upgrades may well surprise us in the morning. Massive difference in these two charts - interesting.
  4. blizzard81
    I think FI is at day 5 at the moment. From this to this in 24 hours?
  5. blizzard81
    The ecm is a real kick in the goolies tonight. That pv over north east Canada just grows ever bigger throughout the run. Thought it was supposed to edge towards Western Canada? Let's hope the ecm is struggling. Wouldn't be the first time.
  6. blizzard81
    That is a staggering difference (for the good) from just 2 days ago. Short term upgrades are exactly what is required.
  7. blizzard81
    Gfs 18z similar to the ecm 12z with the ever tilting Atlantic trough - always a terrific sign imo.
  8. blizzard81
    Hi Tom. Thanks for posting those very memorable charts. Dec 81 holds the fondest of memories for me being just 7 years old at the time. Long lasting snowfall up to my waist and mind numbingly cold. My 16 year old brother took me to the park opposite our house which had numerous large, steep embankments to sledge down. We didn't have a sledge so we used black bin bags which were amazingly effective lol. This is when I became obsessed with cold and snow.Oh happy days! Sorry mods, not often I digress lol.
  9. blizzard81
    That would be very good for early December.
  10. blizzard81
    As BA has just mentioned, the control looks absolutely pukka
  11. blizzard81
    Quite a happy ending to 12z jma tonight
  12. blizzard81
    Lol. Personally, I am still reserving judgement. After all, it's just one op run. The ecm ens should be very revealing later - for good or bad. Also like I said above, we need to see that positive run built upon and hopefully improved on in subsequent runs.
  13. blizzard81
    I am a little more encouraged by that day 10 chart than you it seems. Pressure falling over central/southern Europe and the ooomph is getting squeezed out of the Atlantic. You may be pleasantly surprised by what follows on from there. Usual caveats apply - it's a day 10 chart
  14. blizzard81
    All in all, a much more encouraging run by the ecm. We really did need a half decent run from this model. It was well overdue.
  15. blizzard81
    Mmm! Baby steps by the ecm but we need to see a building of this momentum on tomorrow morning's run.
  16. blizzard81
    Lol if that was a joke. If not, look at the bigger picture
  17. blizzard81
    It's getting there though
  18. blizzard81
    Ecm is so close to something special tonight but it really is like pulling teeth with this model at the moment.
  19. blizzard81
    Is the ecm playing catch up here. Both charts are for Saturday 1st December. The first at 7 days out taken from last Saturday's 12z and the second at 3 days out from tonight's 12z. A huge improvement.
  20. blizzard81
    And ecm at the same time from this morning's run - couldn't be more different really. Until ecm sniffs it, I'm keeping my powder dry.
  21. blizzard81
    Nothing in the output this morning to change my thoughts. Lows barrelling out of the US. The ecm has been really consistent on this. As long as this carries on there is no way to cold for the UK.
  22. blizzard81
    Nothing too special by the end of the ecm run - toppler. Saw a lot of these in the early noughties.
  23. blizzard81
    This is going to be an interesting test between the gfs and gfs p.
  24. blizzard81
    Sure fire sign of a barnstormer of a run coming up - ok maybe not! Lol
  25. blizzard81
    This is a crucial timeframe - about 6 days out. See the shallow Atlantic low at 1010mb. The gfs parallel doesn't make much of it this run and this helps precipitate the great synoptics from day 10. The problem we have is the ecm was the first to pick up this low and has been hell bent on it being a spoiler feature over it's last few op runs. We need to see ecm make much less of this low on tonight's run.
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