blizzard81

I really didn't know that about Manchester in 47. Just goes to show how difficult it can be, even back then.

Mogreps looks improved this morning.

At least Christmas day should feel seasonal.

That is funny - the last bit lol.

Very short lived though. I get your point, would be good by today's standards. I was on college day release during that Jan 95 blizzard and remember having to walk home as all the buses were off and dad couldn't get his car out. I absolutely loved it

I hope you can experience something akin to that spell. I had just turned 13. It was amazing but not totally out of the ordinary at the time as we had experienced some good winter times in my first decade. Dec 81 (part of my name on here), 78/79 which I have only vague recollections, the mid 80's winters which were fab ..... Little did I think at the time that I wouldn't really experience anything like that again - coming up to 50 now lol

I'm never a fan of the push back/delay. True, it sometimes works but in the main it means things just turn into a puff of smoke.

That would be good. Hope the ens don't follow the ops.

I agree. You can only judge this based on previous experience. I don't trust the JMA so that doesn't help. I'm expecting flatter 00z runs in the morning.

Some very mild Christmas runs on the mogreps 12z run, even oop north.

This is probably very close to the mark for Christmas time. Hope I'm wrong but I think this is where we are heading.

Yep, you really couldn't make that up could you? Timing! Looks same as 00z to me up to day 10. No further downgrade as far as I can see.

Hey cmon have some faith man.... Its only 9 days away

I will take no less!

You would think a very good chance of a north easterly thereafter

A little concerned to see what looks like the beginning of trough formation on the north western limb of the atlantic high.

Absolutely.

I know full well that the ecm isn't the be all and end all. Both GFS and ECM have their days of glory and also their epic fails. Just because the ecm didn't handle the previous cold spell very well doesn't mean it will be the same this time. I for one will be watching the 06z ecm control with great interest.

We await the 06z ecm control with baited breath.

We certainly can't rule out the ecm but it did make a mess of the end of Nov/early Dec cold spell. Let's hope it's doing the same this time. Icon 06z is an improvement on it's 00z run at 120hrs.

I certainly don't raise my hopes up on a pub run lol

I really would advise people to give little, if any credence to the 18z op and ensembles.

I would rather it be the opposite lol. True upgrades happen on the 00z runs. If it happens on those then we have reason to be excited.

Trust the pub run at your peril! More so if it agrees with the JMA.

But isn't the pub run ALWAYS a huge upgrade?