blizzard81

Ecm Op = Must try harder! Let's see how the ens faired.

Before anybody jumps all over this post. He is only stating a fact

Absolutely. I like it when the models are out of their comfort zone

I bet you're thinking along the lines of the latest ukmo run . Beware though..... As you know, the ukmo can be an incredible tease!

Two nagging things here. That nagging high anomaly to our south and that nagging central Atlantic low. Frustrating being the watch word here.

Depends what your definition of 'cold' is lol. Compared to Christmas Eve, yes it will be cold.

I suspect many on here will be thinking....... The cold is always 2 weeks away, day 15 etc. You would be forgiven for thinking this way. We all know how it is for long suffering coldies in the UK. However, this time around, I don't see any excuses for any delays or push backs. The second week of January has been the starting point for quite some time due to the favourable teleconnections and then the warming higher up. No excuse for delays now in this instance so if things start to get pushed back from now on, I will definitely start to become sceptical about anything particularly wintry coming our way. Time to reel this one in now. The countdown begins.

Incredibly good anomalies so far out. Ha ha ha that is spooky. Now we're talking!

So, the original tweet was inaccurate?

It will be interesting to see if the ecm continues to ease off on the SSW chances tomorrow and how much that will impact the chances of UK cold next month.

That's a bad sign lol.

Oh the beer goggles run isn't going to show us the most attractive run of the day is it? Well I never!

Thanks for the answer BA and as a result, I agree with every word you say there.

So....... Can somebody clarify if the EC46 is still run from 00z data or not?

Indeed Mike. That's a nice set up after a strange (but good) run.

Exactly what I was thinking. It's an incredibly weird run. This is good news - It's as if the model knows we are going to go cold but doesn't have a clue as to how, why or when.

Ha ha just seen the 2023

Isn't that the CFS? Nice though

Day 8 - Brutal cold other side of the north sea. Plus home grown cold building over the UK.

Yep, ecm is cold from New Years Eve to the 02nd Jan. Not sure where it will go from there though.

That's an interesting chart.

Gfs control goes the end of Dec 78 route. I would really bank that right now.

So close to an old skool brutal January easterly here on the Icon 12z. Scandi goes into the freezer.

I would advise people to just concentrate on the 00z and 12z runs for the sake of one's sanity. Two runs per day from the different suites is more than ample to look for trends. Anything more is overload and just increases confusion.

We need consolidation now over the next few days