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Everything posted by blizzard81
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheers for the compliment mate. June 2022 so I was 48 when it was taken. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It will be ever so tempting -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, 50 years young though huh? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a quick one from me before I go out on the lash for my 50th. It's still a few days away but it has to be done on the Saturday before lol . Fantastic output on the 12z runs. This is getting really exciting now...... Ecm will come to it's senses I'm sure . Keep those new year's wishes of love and peace for everybody in your hearts. It really is a messed up world and it needs that more than ever at the moment ❤❤ -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Improvement in the Greenland area on the latest 06z ecm control run compared to the 00z run. Looks like it would lead to a much smoother transition to cold thereafter. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I also once read that ukmo was much better than ecm at the 2 to 3 day range and that ecm isn't so great at very short range. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I knew it wouldn't look so pretty. If I remember correctly though, a few days ago, the EC46 showed a temporary relaxing of the cold during week commencing 22nd Jan. Key word there being 'temporary'. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would you be kind enough to post the 360hr chart please? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks Catacol. Well we can all see that so he's stating the obvious I suppose. Crucial question is - are they correct? Time as ever will tell. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Who is Brian? The Brian on TWO? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, it's a fair point about ecm all those years ago. Gfs et all are also guilty of this from time to time - jumping off then back on the wagon. I think it resonates more though when the ecm does this as there is generally more respect for that model. Modelling over the next 72 hours will be critical. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I never like to see a sudden and rapid amplification and raising of heights ridging up from Akaska. It always seems to coincide with a pressure fall over Greenland shortly afterwards. Not the trend we wanted to see and it's seemingly come from nowhere. Not being a negative nelly. Things are going in the right direction for cold in the short to medium term. After a torid few weeks of wild, wet and stormy weather, would it be too much to ask for a bit of winter in January? Lol. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A very good, grounded and well balanced post. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think we should wait for the morning runs, they will be cruc....ooops! Sorry -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So countdown from 14th Jan. Ooops.... Sorry @Scot Ingham -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Read my post again lol -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
blizzard81 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Same age as you mate and Dec 81 as a 'nearly' 8 year old was something I will never forget and I can't believe it....... I did exactly the same as you with the weather phonelines behind parents back . The trouble I got into too but it's all we had apart from ceefax . I started about 10 years old when they got their first phone line installed. Absolutely uncanny! Absolute class your post. Made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Amazingly good continuity now from the ecm suite. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hence Exeter repeatedly forecasting moderate to severe frosts on their last few updates. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol.... It's a start. Most Januaries over the last 20 plus years can't even deliver this. Add to that the massive potential going forwards with the ever growing and irresistible trend of retrogression to Greenland. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
blizzard81 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion