blizzard81

I much preferred it when you could reply 'directly' to a post so people could see without having to trawl back at what is being replied to.

@uncertainty - could you please give us some more certainty in your next post

Hmmmm.... Ecm and ens throwing an interesting curve ball this evening which is nice. Also in tandem with a fair few of those gfs ens. We haven't seen much (if any) upgrades in the modelling at relatively short range this winter. It would be nice to see this continue tomorrow and maybe even see Exeter revert back from their delaying of the cold in tomorrow's update. @Don That's from the 00z suite though.

Middle of Feb is exactly when those inflated southern Euro heights dissipate. Only then do we see the opportunity for the white stuff we are all craving.

As others have already said, the Exeter update today is a slight upgrade for wintry potential but patience required. Isn't it always in the UK?

In tune with Exeter's thoughts as well.

GEM is very prone to doing this. It needs upgrading significantly.

Indeed. Well spotted Mike.

Yep, I think we need to look north west through week 2 now. I thought there was going to be a more robust ridge into Scandi but that is a bust now. Gfs now joining EC46 with that trend to amplify to our north west as we enter the first week of Feb. Let's see if we can reel this in. It's a make or break situation for this winter as far as I am concerned.

Must admit... My empathy side came out there for them. Not often that happens

I think everyone is clueless to be honest lol.

Absolutely mate. It really has been a disappointing cold spell on that front hasn't it? It deserved so much more.

You're right Don. Traction is a good word. A little surprised that nobody else has mentioned the improvement - model fatigue? . Where is the stamina these days?

The EC46 looks much improved to me compared to the last couple of days. More retrogression to the north west and leaning back towards the seasonals in terms of anomalies.

Anybody who knows me on here will know I'm certainly no fan of the pub run nor the gem (in it's entirety lol). However, I am also a great believer in the old adage 'every dog has it's day'.

Gfs really is gunning for 47.

The most crucial part of this winter is upon us. There is significant potential at around day 7. Because the models are out of their comfort zone aka 'amplification' in the area of north west Europe, I feel we could see some quite mouth watering synoptics appearing in the next 24 hours.

My thoughts haven't changed. Things could develop quite rapidly at around day 7. The models won't be anywhere near getting a grip on that amplification yet at that timeframe.

The ops, whether they be gfs or ecm tend to do much better at handling mild breakdowns. I suspect most know this. They find it much more difficult when there is a possibility of meridional/amplified patterns emerging. Gfs often spots these way out but only spasmodically. Ecm initially doesn't want to know, gfs roller-coaster ensues, ecm sort of jumps on etc etc. The amplified patterns are still obviously very difficult for the models to get a grasp of, hence my own advice of sticking to 7 days tops in situations like this.

I don't take any op seriously after 7 days tops, whether it be ecm, gfs etc. There's a reason why ukmo ops stop at 168hrs. Anything after is not really worth taking seriously. With this in mind, the ecm op run this evening is definitely an upgrade compared to yesterday's. Compare this evening's 168hr chart to yesterday's 192hr chart. Poles apart if you excuse the pun. After 168hrs, the ecm flattens again but let's see if this improvement grows as we get to the 5/6 day timeframe. Things could develop rapidly here - and in a very good way for those of a cold persuasion.

The ecm op is disappointing this morning, flat in the later timeframe with no sign of the magnitude of amplification we will need to bring the cold back. Not overly concerned as quite frankly, the op has been a Grinch all winter in the 8 to 10 day slot when the gfs sniffs something close to interesting.

Let's hope it comes off - I think we both feel like it could well be the main course if it does

Just to clarify. I'm not saying the start of any cold spell on the 25th. Rather more ridging by this date than what is being modelled at the moment - This then leading to a more rapid descent into cold.

I will add a bit of a curve ball to this. It could well be the ensembles in particular are underestimating the start of the amplification in around 9 days time - that's the 25th Jan. I say this because we have the gfs op and control and also the ecm control smelling the amplification route significantly today. It could well be one of those great ocassions when, if anything, the momentum could speed up and things brought forward a day or two. Quite the opposite to the present cold spell where the chase seemed to go on forever.

Cluster 1 looks awful right until the end.