blizzard81

feb1991blizzard you've just got to love the pub run bless it lol

WYorksWeather it's an interesting concept - a month of contrasting halves and weather types. I remember reading Trevor Harleys fantastic weather website years ago which trawled through the historic UK weather archives. It's amazing how so many of the classic bitter cold spells were preceded by very mild episodes..... I'm getting that same feeling right now.

The models are struggling with timing and the southwards extent of the cold. This situation is always difficult for the models. How fast the atlantic low traverses the atlantic and it's exact track will be very important. This all happening as we get a cold surge heading our way. The models struggled big style in the same sort of scenario in the run up to the mid Jan cold spell. So it stands to reason they will struggle again.

Kasim Awan I see things differently. The cold week 2 weeks ago was modelled very similarly to this potential upcoming cold spell. The models were very undecided as to whether the cold push from the north would make it down across the country. At many stages it only looked like northern Scotland would go cold. Lots of toing and froing on the exact extent of the southward projection of cold from model run to model run. Those in the south were especially (and understandably) angst ridden about it. They were worried it wouldn't be cold enough for that azores low incoming to give that much needed snow fix. What happened in the end? The cold flooded down with ease - which ended any hopes of that azores low delivering as it was kept well south. This is what I expect this time round too - a classic repeating pattern. The cold will sweep in due south/south westwards. However with one important difference - heights lowering much more to our south. Not the bowling ball azores low type though - more disrupted. The other potentially important difference will be the all important wedge cutting down through Iceland. This is something we sadly lacked during the mid January cold snap. This feature will be crucial and it's just about getting into the mid range of all outputs now.

The great thing about the 12z ecm is that there's also many more cold members on the gfs 12z at the same time - circa 9th Feb.

Gowon Gowon then!

@northwestsnow I must admit, the models are a proper kick in the teeth this morning. Pv setting up exactly where it wasn't forecast to. I was expecting some sort of consolidation on a cold spell during week 2 on this morning's suites. I wonder what's gone wrong this time?

WEDGES MAKE SLEDGES!

@feb1991blizzard Doesn't it go back into 6 on that chart?

@Don That's exactly what I'm thinking Don . We've got some time here.

@Allseasons-Si Nice to see you posting mate. Hope everything is ok at your end. I'm sending you my best wishes @Don looking really good tonight mate. Let's see if we can build on this now

@Don Hard not to think that way lol..... Snowflakeless England lol. I'm hopeful - The output today has looked good to me today.

@Don It is frustrating with January being a continual winter Grinch these last 3 decades but February has often carried on in the same vain. I really don't think that will be the case this year

@Uncertainty Indeed Mr Uncertainty! Also ties in nicely with all those seasonal forecasts gunning for the back loaded winter. All is not yet lost.

Very positive developments today. I still think we won't have to wait until the second half of Feb for the best spell of winter. I think the Exeter updates over the next couple of days will bring that forward to more early Feb rather than mid.

@northwestsnow no need to worry as the 12z ecm ens suite is very similar to this morning's.

@Don just my opinion of course Don but I'm getting increasingly confident that you won't have to wait until the second half of February.

@Met4Cast I actually think things are looking much more favourable now than they have for the last 10 days plus.

@MATTWOLVES 3 indeed mate . The only step backwards today is the change to how we can reply to posts.

@feb1991blizzard indeed but I think the one thing most will agree on when it comes to meteorology is that it is a constantly evolving phenomenon and things can change quite rapidly. Yes, usually for the worse in these shores but ever so ocassionally for the better - which is incidently when our best cold spells evolve.

@Kasim Awan don't think many will argue with you tonight with your view - for once . The question is more 'WHEN' in February. Before mid? Around mid? Or slightly after mid? The 12z ecm suite has opened this one up tonight. Take your bets.

@Uncertainty ha ha ha nice one mate. I like that. I'm remembering that first sentence though for this coming morning. I'll be the first one to rub it in if you're wrong trust me

@feb1991blizzard the problem with the Exeter 30 dayer, mjo or whatever lol is that they are out of date when the next set of runs come out. I go on the very latest runs (not the pub run though, nor the gfs 06z lol). The 12z and 00z runs are the ones to follow. The latest runs, which happen to be the 12z runs, are an upgrade in many respects. Let's now see if the 00z runs can carry on in the same vain. If so, expect that Exeter update to upgrade very soon.

'Test' I think I've now cracked it (how to incorporate what you are replying to) on my 8 year old android lol. Much more faffy though. I prefer simple and easy.

@bluearmy I could agree more. A little bizarre in here this evening. @RainAllNight this is the problem though. Mine isn't a smartphone. We are all supposed to be the same though aren't we? Lol