blizzard81

March? He's either got a crystal ball or he's half mystic Meg and half nostrodamous!

I of course want ukmo to be correct this morning but more importantly - I do actually think it will be. I haven't been impressed with the performance of the ecm ops these last few weeks. They have been erratic to say the least. I will be closely following the ukmo output over the next couple of days as we close in on the cold spell.

This post from last night is even more pertinent after the morning runs. Ukmo and gem show the Iberian low heights, unlike the ecm for example. If you want prolongation of the cold (or at least a very small relaxation of the cold) then we need to see an increase in a trend to lower heights over south west Europe. We need to see gfs and ecm move more towards this trend through today. This is what I will be looking for in the models today.

This must be what Tamara has mentioned quite a few times now - anticyclonic and unsettled in her neck of the woods. Southerly tracking systems into south west Europe.

I know it's the fabled pub run but imagine this forum if these upgrades at relatively short timescales continue in the morning.... Phwooaaahoorrhhhhh!

I always think of 1988 being the start of many an awful winter over the proceeding 30 odd years. So I picked 3 charts from this time in January for 1988,1989 and 1990. Then I looked at the latest charts for this upcoming cold spell. Many to choose from of course but I just went with the latest Icon run. This post is a reminder to everyone of what we have USUALLY had to endure just about every January of the last 30 plus years. The charts we are witnessing and marvelling at over the next week or so are incredibly special. Let's savour it and enjoy what I hope will be multiple spoils for most.

High time they get something right for once

Can't post the charts right now but JMA shows the best possible cold solution and is Baltic. Unfortunately it's on its own again which means it will be barking up the wrong tree.

Yep. Also, the trend of today's latest model offerings is a 'straightening' of the northerly in the 5 to 6 day timeframe.

That's interesting about Amy Butler mate. It really was a last minute climbdown on that SSW. If she is scratching her head then we really are in trouble lol.

Anyway.... The cold is here NOW! It actually 'felt' like January outside today. And no, I'm not talking about the January's of the last 25 years. It was like the January's of old.

The sort of run that would test the patience of a saint?

I notice (I think) nobody mentioned that awful Gfs 12z control run in the relatively early timeframe of 5 to 6 days out. I just hope that run will be a dim and distant memory in 8 hours time and not a harbinger of what is actually to come. Not control runs lol. We've all done it though

True. The word 'infancy' springs to mind.

I still don't understand why people give it the time of day. Stick to the 00z & 12z runs.

From today's trends I can't pick fault with your analysis there.

Pub run tends to be 'different'.

Tomorrow morning's runs will be crucial.......

I seem to remember something like this happening years ago with an Azores low and I'm sure it coincided with Stuart Rampling's famous 'torpedo' post.

Which contributed to the run being saved from calamity

Just when we thought we were going to be able to start to relax, the azores low decides to speed up it's west to east journey. We really don't want to see that trend pick up in intensity. The models will struggle with that low as well as the arctic profile so there really could be some squeeky bum time in this forum over the next 48 hours or so.

I think that Azores low is going to make us coldies sweat for a few more runs yet!

May as well add to the good trend of today with the latest mogreps.

Days 9 and 10 look good - If it's snow you are looking for shortly afterwards.

I really don't see any reason for any dispondency with regards to the model output this morning. Looks chuffing fantastic to me. I'm very excited about the rest of January now.