blizzard81

The uppers won't be cold enough for a convective easterly this weekend imo and not enough of a draw anyway. Patience is the watchword. Building blocks. Nice and cold from this weekend though. Hello winter.

WOW! I've been away for a while and literally can't believe what's been happening on this forum today. Any negativity on here is born out of one thing and one thing only - the misconception that there was going to be anything resembling a convective easterly this coming weekend. This was never - NEVER going to happen. Even that one favourable ecm op run would not have delivered didly squat in terms of snowfall. However, what the models HAVE been showing, and increasingly so over the last 24 hours, is the very firm building blocks towards something very special indeed. A proper cross polar flow in tandem with a southerly tracking jet stream. Oh and by the way - ONLY IN THE HEART OF WINTER! This is so rare and we should be relishing this in all it's glory. @Mattwolves has been flying the flag on this for ages now. Well, I've got one hand on the flag now and I'm wrestling but looking at his stature I think I'm flogging a dead horse . Anyway Matt..... The snow of 2024 does have a certain ring to it my good friend. Even better for the Scottish contingent - as it will be known as the snaaaw of 2024 which rhymes perfectly....... It's just got to happen now

Decent mogreps. Let's bring this home.

The 00z runs will be crucial. Sorry..... I just had to . Happy new year to all on this fantastic, combative, angst riden, teeth griding, inspiring and quite simply lovely weather forum

I'm surprised that isn't the op

Ooooh.... Me likes the mogreps

Just 2 decades of me looking at it and thinking what a pile of tosh

My advice, yet again, is to pay little attention to the notoriously unreliable GFS 06z and concentrate on the 12z runs later.

The ECM hasn't pushed the cold back though. Nor has the ukmo.

Most did pick up on it. However, I don't need to tell you that cold is NEVER a cert at two weeks out. Not for the UK.

Feeling more positive now. Tamara's post earlier is incredibly positive and increases confidence that we can inch towards a cold spell. I prefer it to the previous 150hr chart.

The road to cold is certainly gaining traction now. Latest ecm 06z control.

Arguably the best output of the winter so far this morning. Ecm manages to get enough amplitude to draw in that easterly, as opposed to the high slumbering over us and preventing the cold being advected westwards. Ukmo going the same way. Always good to have that on side too. My big 50 in 10 days time. I can count on the fingers of one hand the cold spells that have coincided with my birthday. That's dismal over such a long time span and in the heart of winter.

Don't get me wrong. After 3 months of incessant rain, I will take this.

IT'S THE PUB RUN!

High pressure over the UK looks like a safe bet in 10 days time. Cold, moderate frosts. Then we need retrogression if we are to see anything exciting thereafter. I'm reserving judgement on that.

I wish we really had seen it too many times lol.

Latest ecm control 06z is so close to a frigid easterly. Brutal over Scandi.

Cast your minds back to many seasonals pointing towards cold in Jan and Feb from quite a long way out. The means are now showing this consistently. The seasonals can't have been hedging all their bets on a major SSW happening. Enso, EQBO, sst's, teleconnections etc will have factored much more in their predictions. So, maybe we should be less obsessive about the downgrade in the major SSW predictions.

The only 06z run I give any notice to is the ecm control as it only goes to T144. Better amplification in the atlantic at T144 compared to the 00z control run at the same time.

Predictable. Would be nice for them to offer their thoughts on the turnaround. Maybe even they don't know. The strat output these last couple of days has been as dismal as the weather has been for what seems an eternity.

I will commend Exeter with their recent forecasts. They say a 'significant' cold spell is unlikely, although it will get colder in Jan. Looking at all the tools we have, you can't really argue with that. It looks like things are going to get colder as we head towards mid Jan. Then again, it had to really lol.

Same here mate. It has been unbelievable hasn't it? Absolutely relentless.

Please don't

Good question. My knowledge about all things Strat related is very limited but the one thing I've noticed people (like yourself) who are far more knowledgeable is that it is quite a lot more reliable in terms of long term forecasting. Have the strat gurus like Eric Webb etc made any comments about the sudden change in the extreme forecasts? It would be good to hear their thoughts on it.