NickR
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Everything posted by NickR
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Looking at the winds and the charts I'd say that Newcastle north will do better than CLS south from the convection.
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It looks a little 'fuller' above the main low. And I'm still here listening, Gary! Very welcome analysis.
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My weather station chose this week to give up the ghost. I bought a temporary max/min digital outdoor thermometer for this spell but it's a nightmare to locate as it won't fit in the screen I have for the now defunct station very well. I've jammed it up there so can hopefully still record my mins.
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That Euro4 chart and other short range models have left me a bit deflated for Tuesday tbh.
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I'll be frank, that doesn't look that great for us. It's even further south!
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I'd still like that low to be modelled a BIT further north... I know we'll get the trough, but a direct hit would give greater amounts!
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Could not agree more. It really annoys me!
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Just to check... the GFS accumulation charts don't account (properly) for convection, correct?
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We are getting serious snow from that low. It stops and slides over us.
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The low coming up is slightly further East on this run, which looks to me to give us a better wind direction for convective showers. It's slightly more Easterly rather then ESE.
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East Ireland will eclipse all of us looking at the ICON 06z. Now THAT is a heavy, HEAVY blizzard!
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That little niggle aside, we're still looking plumb for loads of convection up to 90h at least on the 06z, although the amounts look quite a lot reduced from the 00z. Any thoughts?
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At this range we're almost into the shortrange models. I doubt the track is nailed yet.
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Doesn't it then move up to us, though?
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Have you been on the sauce again?
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I'm ready for flat-roof-snow-patrol... If it builds up, I need to shift it from the flat roof of the shoddily built extension from decades back on my house!
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From my amateur view I understand the GFS to be similar to previous runs. ECM looks less progressive. We would still get some frontal stuff but the Midlands and SW would get a real pasting before that.
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GFS 00z has same theme as 18z.. fronts hitting us and then we continue to get snow while milder air affects the south. ECM has 25.5 inches in weardale/teasdale by 216 hours.
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Is it me or is this an epic run for us?
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At around 120 the ppn up here is a tad further north so some areas miss out. Is this due to the low being progged further north again?
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I'm willing to sacrifice the south.... :-D ... though if it means an end to the spell, then maybe accepting serious convection instead while they get their blzzard would be acceptable. Would the convection be decent if the southerly track pans out?
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
NickR replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario? -
What's the best scenario for us vis-à-vis the low towards the end of the week? All the talk in the MO thread is of possible blizzards in the South... from our perspective, what would be the best outcome there? Will it still result in heavy convection here even if we don't get the winds they get down there?
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I'm still convinced that pic was from a summer's day in Tow Law.
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You can't fool me... that's from July.
